WNY Flash
ECNL Regional League Girls · Ohio Valley GU17 · 7 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Jan 16, 12:00 PM
Montour Junction Sports Complex, Indoor ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | WNY Flash | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Pittsburgh Riverhounds average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Montour Junction Sports Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
-
What a win does
Pittsburgh Riverhounds sit 6th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Pittsburgh Riverhounds on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Pittsburgh Riverhounds game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash – Pittsburgh Riverhounds) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Jan 11 – Sun Jan 17); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 5 | 2nd▲ up 5 | 2nd▲ up 5 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 6 | 1st▲ up 6 | 1st▲ up 6 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 5 | 2nd▲ up 5 | 2nd▲ up 5 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 15%
- 2nd 14%
- 3rd 14%
- 4th 16%
- 5th 14%
- 6th 14%
- 7th 13%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Force SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Indiana Elite FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Internationals SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 4 | NWI Lions United | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Ohio Premier | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 7th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 16 12:00 PM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
GTFC Impact |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Ohio Premier 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Indiana Elite FC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
NWI Lions United 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 12:30 PM |
Internationals SC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Pinnacle Sports |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
GTFC Impact |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.28 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Ohio Premier 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.32 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.34 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 03:30 PM |
Internationals SC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Indiana Elite FC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
NWI Lions United 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.40 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Force SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 22 at Internationals SC · Sat Mar 6 at Indiana Elite FC · Sun Mar 7 at NWI Lions United See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Indiana Elite FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at NWI Lions United · Sun Dec 13 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 6 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Internationals SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sat Mar 6 at NWI Lions United · Sun Mar 7 at Indiana Elite FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | NWI Lions United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Dec 12 vs Indiana Elite FC · Sat Mar 6 vs Internationals SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Ohio Premier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs GTFC Impact · Sat Mar 6 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 7 vs WNY Flash See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs NWI Lions United · Sun Dec 13 vs Indiana Elite FC · Sat Jan 16 vs WNY Flash See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | WNY Flash | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 16 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 6 at GTFC Impact · Sun Mar 7 at Ohio Premier See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.