Oregon Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Northwest GU15 · 12 teams · Oregon Surf SC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 19 hours ago.

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5th

0-0-0 record · 0 played

0.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 0–0

last 0

41% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.8

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Dec 5, TBD

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Oregon Surf
5th · 0.00 PPG

Central Washington Sounders
2nd · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

35% 18% 47%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)

Season so far	Oregon Surf	Central Washington Sounders
Position	5th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-0	0-0-0
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Goals for / game	0.0	0.0
Goals against / game	0.0	0.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	—	—
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.00	+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+0.00

Game plan

They struggle to score
Central Washington Sounders average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Northwest United sit 4th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above Northwest United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Central Washington Sounders game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Surf – Central Washington Sounders) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 3	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Win 3.00 PPG	1st▲ up 4	1st▲ up 4	4th▲ up 1
Draw 1.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 3	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1
Loss 0.00 PPG	12th▼ down 7	12th▼ down 7	12th▼ down 7

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

12% finish 1st

41% top 4

59% below the top 4

5.8 average finish

1st 12%
2nd 10%
3rd 9%
4th 10%
5th 9%
6th 9%
7th 9%
8th 6%
9th 8%
10th 7%
11th 6%
12th 6%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	3RSC	0.00 (+0.00)	12th (1.33)	Already ahead
2	Central Washington Sounders	0.00 (+0.00)	9th (1.36)	Already ahead
3	Eastside FC	0.00 (+0.00)	5th (1.42)	Already ahead
4	Northwest United	0.00 (+0.00)	4th (1.42)	Already ahead

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 5th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Dec 5 TBD	Central Washington Sounders 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.24	Upside
Sat Dec 12 TBD	Washington Premier 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.41	Swing game
Sat Jan 16 TBD	Seattle United 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.47	Swing game
Sat Jan 23 TBD	XF 12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.41	Upside
Sat Jan 30 TBD	Eastside FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.44	Swing game
Sat Feb 6 TBD	Valor Soccer 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.47	Swing game
Sat Feb 20 TBD	PacNW SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.48	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM	Northwest United 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away Sedro-Woolley High School	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.45	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	3RSC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.47	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Snohomish United 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.48	Swing game
Sun May 2 TBD	Whatcom FC Rangers 11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.49	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

3RSC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at Central Washington Sounders · Sun Dec 13 at Washington Premier · Sat Jan 16 vs Snohomish United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Central Washington Sounders (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Washington Premier (10th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Snohomish United (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Eastside FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Northwest United (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (11th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	XF (12th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Seattle United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Oregon Surf (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Valor Soccer (9th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	PacNW SC (6th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Central Washington Sounders

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Oregon Surf · Sat Dec 12 vs 3RSC · Sat Jan 16 at XF See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Oregon Surf (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	3RSC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	XF (12th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Valor Soccer (9th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (11th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Northwest United (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Snohomish United (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	PacNW SC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Washington Premier (10th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Eastside FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Seattle United (7th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eastside FC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Valor Soccer · Sun Dec 13 at PacNW SC · Sat Jan 16 vs Northwest United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Valor Soccer (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	PacNW SC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Northwest United (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	3RSC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Oregon Surf (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Washington Premier (10th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (11th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Snohomish United (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Seattle United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Central Washington Sounders (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	XF (12th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Northwest United

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Whatcom FC Rangers · Sun Jan 10 at Snohomish United · Sat Jan 16 at Eastside FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (11th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Snohomish United (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Eastside FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	PacNW SC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	3RSC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Central Washington Sounders (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Valor Soccer (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Oregon Surf (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	XF (12th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Seattle United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	at	Washington Premier (10th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Surf

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 at Central Washington Sounders · Sat Dec 12 vs Washington Premier · Sat Jan 16 vs Seattle United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Central Washington Sounders (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Washington Premier (10th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Seattle United (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	XF (12th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Eastside FC (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Valor Soccer (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	PacNW SC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Northwest United (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	3RSC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Snohomish United (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (11th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PacNW SC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Seattle United · Sun Dec 13 vs Eastside FC · Sat Jan 23 vs Northwest United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Seattle United (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Eastside FC (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Northwest United (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Washington Premier (10th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	XF (12th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Snohomish United (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Oregon Surf (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Central Washington Sounders (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Valor Soccer (9th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (11th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	3RSC (1st)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Seattle United

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at PacNW SC · Sun Dec 13 vs Valor Soccer · Sat Jan 16 at Oregon Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	PacNW SC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Valor Soccer (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Oregon Surf (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (11th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Snohomish United (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	XF (12th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Washington Premier (10th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	3RSC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Eastside FC (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Northwest United (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	Central Washington Sounders (2nd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Snohomish United

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 vs XF · Sun Jan 10 vs Northwest United · Sat Jan 16 at 3RSC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	XF (12th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Northwest United (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	3RSC (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Washington Premier (10th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Seattle United (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	PacNW SC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Central Washington Sounders (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Eastside FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (11th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Oregon Surf (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Valor Soccer (9th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Valor Soccer

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at Eastside FC · Sun Dec 13 at Seattle United · Sat Jan 16 at Whatcom FC Rangers See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Eastside FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Seattle United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (11th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Central Washington Sounders (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Washington Premier (10th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Oregon Surf (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Northwest United (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	XF (12th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	PacNW SC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	3RSC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	Snohomish United (8th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Washington Premier

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at Oregon Surf · Sun Dec 13 vs 3RSC · Sat Jan 23 at Snohomish United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Oregon Surf (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	3RSC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Snohomish United (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	PacNW SC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Valor Soccer (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Eastside FC (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Seattle United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (11th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Central Washington Sounders (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	XF (12th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Northwest United (4th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Whatcom FC Rangers

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 at Northwest United · Sun Dec 6 at XF · Sat Jan 16 vs Valor Soccer See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Northwest United (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	XF (12th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Valor Soccer (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Seattle United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Central Washington Sounders (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	3RSC (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Eastside FC (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Washington Premier (10th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Snohomish United (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PacNW SC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	at	Oregon Surf (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 at Snohomish United · Sun Dec 6 vs Whatcom FC Rangers · Sat Jan 16 vs Central Washington Sounders See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Snohomish United (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (11th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Central Washington Sounders (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Oregon Surf (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	PacNW SC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Seattle United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	3RSC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Valor Soccer (9th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Northwest United (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Washington Premier (10th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Eastside FC (3rd)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.