Oregon Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Northwest GU14 · 12 teams · Oregon Surf SC (all teams)

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12th

0-0-5 record · 5 played

0.00 points per game

-20 goal diff · 1–21

LLLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.8

+0.68 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, TBD

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Oregon Surf
12th · 0.00 PPG

PacNW SC
11th · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

22% 22% 57%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.0 against · 0.86 expected points)

Season so far	Oregon Surf	PacNW SC
Position	12th	11th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-5	0-0-7
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Goals for / game	0.2	0.6
Goals against / game	4.2	3.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	4	3
Form (recent first)	L L L L L	L L L L L
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	1–6 at Eastside FC	0–5 at Northwest United
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-2.26	-1.47
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.68	+0.64

Common opponents: Washington Premier — we 0–4; they 0–1. Central Washington Sounders — we 0–4; they 0–2. Northwest United — we 0–4; they 0–5. XF — we 0–3; they 1–3. Eastside FC — we 1–6; they 1–4.

Game plan

They struggle to score
PacNW SC average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 3 of 7.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
PacNW SC concede 3.0/game; worst result 0–5 at Northwest United.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–4 at Washington Premier, 0–4 vs Central Washington Sounders, 0–4 vs Northwest United, 0–3 vs XF.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 22%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Confidence is low on their side
PacNW SC have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
PacNW SC sit 11th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above PacNW SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PacNW SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oregon Surf – PacNW SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 0.17 PPG	11th▲ up 1	11th▲ up 1	11th▲ up 1
Win 0.50 PPG	11th▲ up 1	11th▲ up 1	11th▲ up 1
Draw 0.17 PPG	11th▲ up 1	11th▲ up 1	11th▲ up 1
Loss 0.00 PPG	12th— holds	12th— holds	12th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 11th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

11.8 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th <1%
10th <1%
11th 20%
12th 80%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.32 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Seattle United	2.67 (+2.67)	1st (2.19)	59 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
2	Northwest United	2.29 (+2.29)	3rd (2.02)	51 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
3	Washington Premier	2.29 (+2.29)	2nd (2.05)	51 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
4	XF	2.14 (+2.14)	5th (1.81)	48 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
5	Eastside FC	2.14 (+2.14)	4th (1.95)	48 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
6	Snohomish United	1.57 (+1.57)	6th (1.59)	35 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
7	Valor Soccer	1.50 (+1.50)	7th (1.29)	33 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
8	Central Washington Sounders	1.00 (+1.00)	10th (1.12)	22 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
9	Whatcom FC Rangers	0.86 (+0.86)	9th (1.13)	19 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
10	3RSC	0.67 (+0.67)	8th (1.14)	15 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
11	PacNW SC	0.00 (+0.00)	11th (0.48)	Already ahead

How the results connect

18 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Oregon Surf to PacNW SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

3 even

12 favour them

-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 5th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 TBD	PacNW SC 11th · 0-0-7 · GD -17	Away	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–1	0.86	0.14	Upside
Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM	Seattle United 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +10	Away far trip Magnuson Park	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–3	0.09	0.14	Upside
Sat Oct 31 11:30 AM	3RSC 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -4	Away far trip Southridge HS Stadium (Turf) · turf	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–2	0.35	0.16	Upside
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	Whatcom FC Rangers 9th · 2-0-5 · GD -5	Away far trip Phillips 66 Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–3	0.33	0.18	Upside
Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM	Snohomish United 6th · 3-2-2 · GD +0	Away far trip Lake Tye	●●●●● Very tough	5%	0–3	0.23	0.19	Upside
Sat Dec 5 TBD	Central Washington Sounders 8th · 2-0-4 · GD +0	Away	●●●●● Very tough	6%	0–3	0.28	0.20	Upside
Sat Dec 12 TBD	Washington Premier 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +11	Home	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–3	0.16	0.19	Upside
Sat Jan 9 TBD	Valor Soccer 7th · 3-0-3 · GD -5	Home	●●●●● Very tough	12%	1–2	0.52	0.22	Upside
Sat Jan 16 TBD	Seattle United 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +10	Home	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–3	0.14	0.21	Upside
Sat Jan 23 TBD	XF 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +9	Away	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–4	0.10	0.20	Upside
Sat Jan 30 TBD	Eastside FC 5th · 5-0-2 · GD +9	Home	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–3	0.16	0.20	Upside
Sat Feb 6 TBD	Valor Soccer 7th · 3-0-3 · GD -5	Home	●●●●● Very tough	12%	1–2	0.52	0.22	Upside
Sat Feb 20 TBD	PacNW SC 11th · 0-0-7 · GD -17	Home	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–1	1.09	0.27	Upside
Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM	Northwest United 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +12	Away far trip Skagit Valley College	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–4	0.07	0.26	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	3RSC 10th · 1-1-4 · GD -4	Home	●●●●● Very tough	11%	0–2	0.50	0.27	Upside
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Snohomish United 6th · 3-2-2 · GD +0	Home	●●●●● Very tough	7%	0–2	0.34	0.27	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	Whatcom FC Rangers 9th · 2-0-5 · GD -5	Home	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–2	0.49	0.28	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Seattle United

+10

2.67

WWWDW

-0.23

-0.06

96%

2.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	XF (4th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Snohomish United (6th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	3RSC (10th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Valor Soccer (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Washington Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Eastside FC See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–1	31%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Oregon Surf (12th)	3–0	94%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Eastside FC (5th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	2–0	62%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Northwest United (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0	82%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Valor Soccer (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Oregon Surf (12th)	3–0	91%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Snohomish United (6th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	XF (4th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Washington Premier (3rd)	1–0	38%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	3RSC (10th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Eastside FC (5th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Northwest United (2nd)	1–1	46%
·	Sun May 2	at	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	2–0	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Northwest United

+12

2.29

LWWDW

-0.52

+0.07

83%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	3RSC (10th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Oregon Surf (12th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Eastside FC (5th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Snohomish United (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Valor Soccer · Sat Oct 31 vs XF · Sat Nov 7 vs Washington Premier See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Valor Soccer (7th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	XF (4th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Washington Premier (3rd)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Seattle United (1st)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Snohomish United (6th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Eastside FC (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	PacNW SC (11th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	3RSC (10th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Valor Soccer (7th)	2–1	75%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Oregon Surf (12th)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	XF (4th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Seattle United (1st)	1–1	29%
·	Sun May 2	at	Washington Premier (3rd)	1–1	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Washington Premier

+11

2.29

WWDWL

-0.49

+0.09

86%

2.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Eastside FC (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Valor Soccer (7th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Snohomish United (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	PacNW SC (11th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	3RSC (10th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Oregon Surf (12th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Seattle United · Sat Oct 31 at Central Washington Sounders · Sat Nov 7 at Northwest United See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Seattle United (1st)	1–0	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Northwest United (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	XF (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Oregon Surf (12th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	3RSC (10th)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Snohomish United (6th)	1–0	51%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0	86%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Valor Soccer (7th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Eastside FC (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Seattle United (1st)	0–1	31%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	XF (4th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Northwest United (2nd)	1–1	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

2.14

WWWWL

-0.51

+0.10

46%

4.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Seattle United (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Oregon Surf (12th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Valor Soccer (7th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Snohomish United (6th)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at 3RSC · Sat Oct 31 at Northwest United · Sat Nov 7 at Eastside FC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	3RSC (10th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Northwest United (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Eastside FC (5th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Washington Premier (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Snohomish United (6th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Oregon Surf (12th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	PacNW SC (11th)	3–0	80%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Seattle United (1st)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	3RSC (10th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Valor Soccer (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Northwest United (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Washington Premier (3rd)	1–1	23%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Eastside FC (5th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eastside FC

2.14

WLWWW

-0.34

+0.01

75%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Washington Premier (3rd)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Oregon Surf (12th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	3RSC (10th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Snohomish United (6th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Northwest United (2nd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Valor Soccer (7th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Whatcom FC Rangers · Sat Oct 31 vs Seattle United · Sat Nov 7 vs XF See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Seattle United (1st)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	XF (4th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Valor Soccer (7th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	PacNW SC (11th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Northwest United (2nd)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	3RSC (10th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Oregon Surf (12th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Washington Premier (3rd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Snohomish United (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Seattle United (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun May 2	at	XF (4th)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Snohomish United

1.57

WWDDW

+0.38

-0.25

12%

5.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	PacNW SC (11th)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Seattle United (1st)	0–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Washington Premier (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Eastside FC (5th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	3RSC (10th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Northwest United (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	XF (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Central Washington Sounders · Sat Oct 31 vs Whatcom FC Rangers · Sat Nov 7 at Valor Soccer See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Valor Soccer (7th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Oregon Surf (12th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Northwest United (2nd)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	XF (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	3RSC (10th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Seattle United (1st)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Eastside FC (5th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Oregon Surf (12th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Valor Soccer (7th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Valor Soccer

-5

1.50

LLWWL

+0.50

-0.16

7.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	XF (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Seattle United (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Eastside FC (5th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Northwest United · Sat Oct 31 vs PacNW SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Snohomish United See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Northwest United (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Snohomish United (6th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	3RSC (10th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Eastside FC (5th)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Seattle United (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Oregon Surf (12th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Oregon Surf (12th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Northwest United (2nd)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	XF (4th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	3RSC (10th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun May 2	at	Snohomish United (6th)	1–2	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Central Washington Sounders

1.00

LWLLL

-0.42

+0.16

8.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Northwest United (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Valor Soccer (7th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	XF (4th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Oregon Surf (12th)	4–0

Next: Sat Sep 12 at 3RSC · Sat Oct 24 vs Snohomish United · Sat Oct 31 vs Washington Premier See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	at	3RSC (10th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Snohomish United (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Seattle United (1st)	0–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Eastside FC (5th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Oregon Surf (12th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	3RSC (10th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	XF (4th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Valor Soccer (7th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Northwest United (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Snohomish United (6th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Eastside FC (5th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Seattle United (1st)	0–2	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Whatcom FC Rangers

-5

0.86

LLLWL

+0.38

-0.17

8.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	3RSC (10th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Seattle United (1st)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Valor Soccer (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	XF (4th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Northwest United (2nd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eastside FC · Sat Oct 31 at Snohomish United · Sat Nov 7 vs Oregon Surf See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Eastside FC (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Snohomish United (6th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Oregon Surf (12th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	XF (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Northwest United (2nd)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Valor Soccer (7th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Seattle United (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	3RSC (10th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Eastside FC (5th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Snohomish United (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun May 2	at	Oregon Surf (12th)	2–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

3RSC

-4

0.67

LLLDW

+0.60

-0.23

8.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Northwest United (2nd)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Eastside FC (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Seattle United (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Snohomish United (6th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Washington Premier (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Central Washington Sounders · Sun Oct 25 vs XF · Sat Oct 31 vs Oregon Surf See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 12 (no score yet)	vs	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	XF (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Oregon Surf (12th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Valor Soccer (7th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Snohomish United (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Eastside FC (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Northwest United (2nd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	XF (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Seattle United (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Oregon Surf (12th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Valor Soccer (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun May 2	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PacNW SC

-17

0.00

LLLLL

+0.64

-0.14

11.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Snohomish United (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	XF (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Northwest United (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Eastside FC (5th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Seattle United (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oregon Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Valor Soccer · Sat Nov 7 vs 3RSC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oregon Surf (12th)	1–1	57%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Valor Soccer (7th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	3RSC (10th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Seattle United (1st)	0–2	5%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Eastside FC (5th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Northwest United (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	XF (4th)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Snohomish United (6th)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Oregon Surf (12th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Valor Soccer (7th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun May 2	at	3RSC (10th)	0–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oregon Surf

-20

0.00

LLLLL

+0.68

+0.04

11.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Eastside FC (5th)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	XF (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Northwest United (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at PacNW SC · Sun Oct 25 at Seattle United · Sat Oct 31 at 3RSC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	PacNW SC (11th)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Seattle United (1st)	0–3	1%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	3RSC (10th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Snohomish United (6th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Central Washington Sounders (8th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Washington Premier (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Valor Soccer (7th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Seattle United (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	XF (4th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Eastside FC (5th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Valor Soccer (7th)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Northwest United (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	3RSC (10th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Snohomish United (6th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (9th)	1–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.