Albany Alleycats
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU18/19 · 8 teams · Empire State Youth Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Mar 21, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Albany Alleycats | New England Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
New England Surf average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the New England Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Albany Alleycats – New England Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Mar 15 – Sun Mar 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 7th▼ down 6 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 7th▼ down 6 | 7th▼ down 6 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 7 | 8th▼ down 7 | 8th▼ down 7 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 14%
- 2nd 14%
- 3rd 14%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 9%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 1st hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
New England Surf 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Quickstrike FC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
East Coast Surf 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 06:00 PM |
PDA SOUTH BLUE 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Westampton Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 03:00 PM |
YMS 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Duiame Athletic Complex - Holy Ghost Preparatory S |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Reading Rage Surf 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Keystone Athletic 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.48 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albany Alleycats | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 vs New England Surf · Sat Apr 10 vs Quickstrike FC · Sun Apr 11 vs East Coast Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | East Coast Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 vs Quickstrike FC · Sat Apr 10 at New England Surf · Sun Apr 11 at Albany Alleycats See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Keystone Athletic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 at Reading Rage Surf · Sat Apr 10 at YMS · Sun Apr 11 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | New England Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 at Albany Alleycats · Sat Apr 10 vs East Coast Surf · Sun Apr 11 vs Quickstrike FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PDA SOUTH BLUE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 vs YMS · Sat Apr 10 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Apr 11 at Keystone Athletic See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Quickstrike FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 at East Coast Surf · Sat Apr 10 at Albany Alleycats · Sun Apr 11 at New England Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Reading Rage Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 vs Keystone Athletic · Sat Apr 10 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Apr 11 vs YMS See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | YMS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 at PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sat Apr 10 vs Keystone Athletic · Sun Apr 11 at Reading Rage Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.