Match Fit Surf White
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU15 · 6 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sun Apr 4, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | Match Fit Surf White | FC Copa Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Copa Academy average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
FC Copa Academy sit 1st on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above FC Copa Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Copa Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf White – FC Copa Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Mar 29 – Sun Apr 4); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
6th▼ down 4 | 6th▼ down 4 | 6th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 18%
- 2nd 16%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th 16%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 16%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copa Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 2nd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
PDA SOUTH WHITE 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Westampton Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
NLSA Surf 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
PDA SOUTH WHITE 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
NLSA Surf 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Copa Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Apr 4 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Apr 10 at NLSA Surf · Sat Apr 17 vs WNY Flash Binghamton See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Match Fit Surf White | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Apr 4 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Apr 10 at PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sat Apr 17 vs NLSA Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NLSA Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sun Mar 21 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sat Apr 10 vs FC Copa Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | PDA SOUTH WHITE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 at PSA Monmouth · Sun Mar 21 at NLSA Surf · Sat Apr 10 vs Match Fit Surf White See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PSA Monmouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sat Apr 17 at PDA SOUTH WHITE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | WNY Flash Binghamton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 vs NLSA Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs PSA Monmouth · Sat Apr 17 at FC Copa Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.