Scorpions SC South

ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU13 · 6 teams · Scorpions SC (all teams)

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5th

3-2-4 record · 9 played

1.22 points per game

-4 goal diff · 9–13

WWLDWlast 5

48% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.5

+0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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Scorpions SC South
5th · 1.22 PPG

Connecticut FC Legacy
3rd · 1.71 PPG

Johnson and Wales University - Scotts Miracle-Gro , Field 1 ↗

39% 30% 31%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.0 against · 1.46 expected points)

Season so far	Scorpions SC South	Connecticut FC Legacy
Position	5th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	3-2-4	4-0-3
Points per game	1.22	1.71
Goals for / game	1.0	1.6
Goals against / game	1.4	1.4
Clean sheets	4	1
Held scoreless	2	1
Form (recent first)	W D L W W	L W W
Biggest win	5–0 vs Force FC	2–1 vs PSA North
Worst loss	0–1 at Select Northeast	0–2 vs AC Connecticut
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.18	-0.24
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.24	+0.78

Common opponents: PSA North — we 1–0; they 2–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Connecticut FC Legacy score 1.6/game — well above the league's 0.6.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
They leak goals — be greedy
Connecticut FC Legacy concede 1.4/game; worst result 0–2 vs AC Connecticut.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Select Northeast, 0–0 at FC Stars New Hampshire.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 39%; a draw (30%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
FC Stars New Hampshire sit 4th on 1.38 PPG; we are on 1.22.
A point moves us above FC Stars New Hampshire on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Connecticut FC Legacy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Scorpions SC South – Connecticut FC Legacy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.40 PPG	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1	6th▼ down 1
Win 1.40 PPG	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1	6th▼ down 1
Draw 1.20 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.10 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

48% top 4

52% below the top 4

4.5 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 17%
4th 31%
5th 36%
6th 16%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.11 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	AC Connecticut	2.57 (+1.35)	1st (2.29)	36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Select Northeast	2.00 (+0.78)	2nd (1.94)	25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3	Connecticut FC Legacy	1.71 (+0.49)	3rd (1.35)	20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
4	FC Stars New Hampshire	1.38 (+0.16)	4th (1.21)	A point next game

Position over the season

2 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 3rd hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM	Connecticut FC Legacy 3rd · 4-0-3 · GD +1	Home Johnson and Wales University - Scotts Miracle-Gro	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–0	1.46	1.25	Upside
Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM	AC Connecticut 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +14	Home Forekicks III · turf	●●●●● Very tough	12%	0–1	0.60	1.19	Upside
Sun Mar 14 TBD	PDA SCP	Home	●●●●○ Tough	28%	0–0	1.22	1.19	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Vale Rush United 6th · 2-1-4 · GD -3	Away	●●●●○ Tough	37%	0–0	1.44	1.21	Upside
Sat Apr 3 TBD	Vale Rush United 6th · 2-1-4 · GD -3	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–0	1.64	1.24	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	FC Stars New Hampshire 4th · 3-2-3 · GD -5	Home	●●●●○ Tough	32%	0–0	1.34	1.25	Upside
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Select Northeast 2nd · 5-1-2 · GD +8	Home	●●●●● Very tough	14%	0–1	0.71	1.21	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	Connecticut FC Legacy 3rd · 4-0-3 · GD +1	Away	●●●●○ Tough	32%	0–1	1.26	1.22	Upside
Sun May 16 TBD	AC Connecticut 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +14	Away	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–1	0.47	1.17	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

AC Connecticut

+14

2.57

WWW

-0.24

-0.04

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 3	at	Connecticut FC Legacy (3rd)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	PSA North (—)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	PDA SCP (—)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SUSA FC Northeast · Sun Oct 25 vs Long Island Slammers · Sat Oct 31 at Vale Rush United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (—)	1–0	60%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Long Island Slammers (—)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Vale Rush United (6th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Scorpions SC South (5th)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (3rd)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Select Northeast (2nd)	1–0	41%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (4th)	1–0	65%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Vale Rush United (6th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Scorpions SC South (5th)	1–0	71%
·	Sat May 22	at	Select Northeast (2nd)	0–0	34%
·	Sun May 23	at	FC Stars New Hampshire (4th)	1–0	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Select Northeast

2.00

WLWW

-0.30

+0.03

100%

1.9

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Vale Rush United (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Scorpions SC South (5th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	NJ Crush FC (—)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Manhattan SC (—)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eastern FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Force FC · Sat Oct 31 at FC Stars New Hampshire See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Eastern FC (—)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Force FC (—)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Stars New Hampshire (4th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (4th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	0–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Connecticut FC Legacy (3rd)	1–0	63%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Vale Rush United (6th)	1–0	67%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Scorpions SC South (5th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat May 22	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	0–0	35%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (3rd)	1–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Connecticut FC Legacy

1.71

WWL

+0.78

+0.05

81%

3.6

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	PDA SCP (—)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	PSA North (—)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Long Island Slammers · Sun Oct 25 vs SUSA FC Northeast · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC South See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Long Island Slammers (—)	0–0	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (—)	0–0	30%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Scorpions SC South (5th)	0–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Vale Rush United (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (4th)	0–0	34%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Select Northeast (2nd)	0–1	14%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Scorpions SC South (5th)	1–0	38%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Vale Rush United (6th)	1–0	47%
·	Sat May 22	at	FC Stars New Hampshire (4th)	0–1	28%
·	Sun May 23	at	Select Northeast (2nd)	0–1	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars New Hampshire

-5

1.38

LDWD

-0.29

+0.16

55%

4.3

D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Scorpions SC South (5th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Vale Rush United (6th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Manhattan SC (—)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	NJ Crush FC (—)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Force FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Eastern FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Select Northeast See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Force FC (—)	0–0	28%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Eastern FC (—)	0–0	28%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Select Northeast (2nd)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Select Northeast (2nd)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Connecticut FC Legacy (3rd)	0–0	33%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	0–1	10%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Scorpions SC South (5th)	0–0	30%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Vale Rush United (6th)	0–0	38%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (3rd)	1–0	40%
·	Sun May 23	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	0–1	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Scorpions SC South

-4

1.22

WWLDW

+0.24

+0.08

48%

4.5

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	PSA North (—)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Stars New Hampshire (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Select Northeast (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Force FC (—)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Eastern FC (—)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Connecticut FC Legacy · Sun Nov 1 vs AC Connecticut · Sun Mar 14 vs PDA SCP See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (3rd)	1–0	39%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	0–1	12%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	PDA SCP (—)	0–0	28%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Vale Rush United (6th)	0–0	37%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Vale Rush United (6th)	1–0	44%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (4th)	0–0	32%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Select Northeast (2nd)	0–1	14%
·	Sat May 15	at	Connecticut FC Legacy (3rd)	0–1	32%
·	Sun May 16	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	0–1	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Vale Rush United

-3

1.00

WWLL

+0.24

+0.12

16%

5.5

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Select Northeast (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Stars New Hampshire (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Eastern FC (—)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Force FC (—)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PSA North · Sat Oct 31 vs AC Connecticut · Sun Nov 1 vs Connecticut FC Legacy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	PSA North (—)	0–0	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (3rd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	PDA SCP (—)	0–0	24%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Scorpions SC South (5th)	0–0	30%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Scorpions SC South (5th)	0–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Select Northeast (2nd)	0–1	10%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (4th)	0–0	27%
·	Sat May 15	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	0–2	6%
·	Sun May 16	at	Connecticut FC Legacy (3rd)	0–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (0.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.