Match Fit Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Atlantic GU16 · 10 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)

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5th

0-0-0 record · 0 played

0.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 0–0

last 0

39% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.6

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Mar 20, TBD

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Match Fit Surf
5th · 0.00 PPG

PDA White
7th · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

35% 18% 47%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)

Season so far	Match Fit Surf	PDA White
Position	5th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-0	0-0-0
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Goals for / game	0.0	0.0
Goals against / game	0.0	0.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	—	—
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.00	+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+0.00

Game plan

They struggle to score
PDA White average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Maryland United FC sit 4th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above Maryland United FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PDA White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf – PDA White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Mar 15 – Sun Mar 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	1st▲ up 4	6th▼ down 1	9th▼ down 4
Win 3.00 PPG	1st▲ up 4	1st▲ up 4	6th▼ down 1
Draw 1.00 PPG	1st▲ up 4	9th▼ down 4	9th▼ down 4
Loss 0.00 PPG	10th▼ down 5	10th▼ down 5	10th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

9% finish 1st

39% top 4

61% below the top 4

5.6 average finish

1st 9%
2nd 10%
3rd 10%
4th 10%
5th 10%
6th 10%
7th 10%
8th 10%
9th 10%
10th 11%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Bethesda SC	0.00 (+0.00)	5th (1.39)	Already ahead
2	FC DELCO	0.00 (+0.00)	6th (1.39)	Already ahead
3	HEX FC Bucks	0.00 (+0.00)	2nd (1.43)	Already ahead
4	Maryland United FC	0.00 (+0.00)	3rd (1.43)	Already ahead

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 5th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Mar 20 TBD	PDA White 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.24	Upside
Sat Mar 27 TBD	HEX FC Bucks 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.41	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 TBD	FC DELCO 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.47	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.41	Upside
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Maryland United FC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.44	Swing game
Sat May 1 02:15 PM	Pipeline SC 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away Mercy High School	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.41	Upside
Sun May 9 TBD	Bethesda SC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.43	Swing game
Sat May 15 TBD	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.41	Upside
Sat May 22 01:00 PM	PDA Blue 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away PDA Main Complex	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.39	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Bethesda SC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 vs FC DELCO · Sat Apr 10 vs Pipeline SC · Sun Apr 11 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	HEX FC Bucks (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA Blue (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	PDA White (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 9	at	Match Fit Surf (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	at	Maryland United FC (4th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC DELCO

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 at Bethesda SC · Sun Mar 21 at Pipeline SC · Sat Mar 27 at PDA Blue See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Bethesda SC (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	PDA Blue (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Match Fit Surf (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	HEX FC Bucks (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (9th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Maryland United FC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PDA White (7th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HEX FC Bucks

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sun Mar 7 at PDA White · Sun Mar 21 vs Maryland United FC · Sat Mar 27 at Match Fit Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Mar 7	at	PDA White (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Maryland United FC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Match Fit Surf (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Bethesda SC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	PDA Blue (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (9th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Maryland United FC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sun Mar 21 at HEX FC Bucks · Sat Mar 27 vs Pipeline SC · Sat Apr 10 vs PDA Blue See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Mar 21	at	HEX FC Bucks (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PDA Blue (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (9th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	PDA White (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Match Fit Surf (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Bethesda SC (1st)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Match Fit Surf

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 at PDA White · Sat Mar 27 vs HEX FC Bucks · Sun Apr 11 vs FC DELCO See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	at	PDA White (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	HEX FC Bucks (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (9th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Maryland United FC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Bethesda SC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 22	at	PDA Blue (6th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA Blue

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Tue Mar 9 vs PDA White · Sat Mar 20 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 27 vs FC DELCO See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Tue Mar 9	vs	PDA White (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Maryland United FC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Bethesda SC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	HEX FC Bucks (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Match Fit Surf (5th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA White

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sun Mar 7 vs HEX FC Bucks · Tue Mar 9 at PDA Blue · Sat Mar 20 vs Match Fit Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	HEX FC Bucks (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Tue Mar 9	at	PDA Blue (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Match Fit Surf (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Maryland United FC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pipeline SC (10th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	at	Bethesda SC (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Penn Fusion Soccer Academy

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 vs PDA Blue · Sat Mar 27 at PDA White · Sat Apr 10 at HEX FC Bucks See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PDA Blue (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	PDA White (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	HEX FC Bucks (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Bethesda SC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	at	Maryland United FC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Match Fit Surf (5th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 at Pipeline SC · Sat Apr 10 at PDA White · Sun Apr 11 vs Maryland United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pipeline SC (10th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	PDA White (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Maryland United FC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Match Fit Surf (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	Bethesda SC (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	HEX FC Bucks (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	at	PDA Blue (6th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pipeline SC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 vs Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sun Mar 21 vs FC DELCO · Sat Mar 27 at Maryland United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Maryland United FC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Bethesda SC (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PDA Blue (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA White (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Match Fit Surf (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 16	at	HEX FC Bucks (3rd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.