Penn Fusion Soccer Academy

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Atlantic GU13 · 10 teams · Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 15 minutes ago.

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1st

6-0-0 record · 6 played

3.00 points per game

+23 goal diff · 25–2

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

-0.32 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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Penn Fusion Soccer Academy
1st · 3.00 PPG

Maryland United FC
9th · 0.25 PPG

USTC, Zach Steffen Field ↗

93%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.7 for, 0.4 against · 2.84 expected points)

Season so far	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy	Maryland United FC
Position	1st	9th
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-0	0-1-3
Points per game	3.00	0.25
Goals for / game	4.2	0.3
Goals against / game	0.3	1.8
Clean sheets	4	0
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L L D L
Biggest win	7–0 at Bethesda SC	—
Worst loss	—	0–3 vs Match Fit Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.36	-0.83
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.32	+0.35

Common opponents: FC DELCO — we 3–0; they 0–2. Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals — we 2–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Maryland United FC average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 3 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 93% chance; likely score 3–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Maryland United FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Penn Fusion Soccer Academy – Maryland United FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.71 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.57 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

99% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 99%
2nd 1%
3rd <1%
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

16 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Penn Fusion Soccer Academy to Maryland United FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us

0 favour them

+5.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.27 · 9th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM	Maryland United FC 9th · 0-1-3 · GD -6	Home USTC	●○○○○ Favorable	93%	3–0	2.84	2.98	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 09:30 AM	Match Fit Surf 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +7	Away Morris Catholic High School	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–0	2.09	2.87	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 12:30 PM	Pipeline SC 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -5	Home USTC	●○○○○ Favorable	92%	3–0	2.82	2.86	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 TBD	PDA Blue 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	2–0	2.47	2.82	Bank it
Sat Mar 27 TBD	PDA White 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +3	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	75%	2–1	2.40	2.78	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 TBD	HEX FC Bucks 10th · 0-0-5 · GD -22	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	6–0	2.98	2.80	Bank it
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Bethesda SC 8th · 1-0-5 · GD -13	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	4–0	2.94	2.81	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 TBD	FC DELCO 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +9	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	1–0	1.98	2.75	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 5th · 2-2-1 · GD +2	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	2–0	2.55	2.74	Bank it
Sat May 1 TBD	Maryland United FC 9th · 0-1-3 · GD -6	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	3–0	2.76	2.74	Bank it
Sat May 8 09:00 AM	Pipeline SC 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -5	Away far trip Mercy High School	●○○○○ Favorable	88%	3–0	2.72	2.74	Bank it
Sat May 15 TBD	Match Fit Surf 6th · 2-2-2 · GD +7	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–0	2.30	2.71	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Penn Fusion Soccer Academy

+23

3.00

WWWWW

-0.32

-0.27

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Bethesda SC (8th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	PDA White (3rd)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	PDA Blue (4th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Maryland United FC · Sun Nov 8 at Match Fit Surf · Sat Nov 14 vs Pipeline SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	3–0	93%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	2–0	63%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Pipeline SC (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	PDA White (3rd)	2–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	6–0	99%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Bethesda SC (8th)	4–0	97%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat May 1	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat May 8	at	Pipeline SC (7th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	2–0	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC DELCO

2.29

WDLWW

-0.28

-0.04

92%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Bethesda SC (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pipeline SC (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sat Nov 7 at PDA White · Sat Mar 20 at Bethesda SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PDA White (3rd)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Bethesda SC (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Pipeline SC (7th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	PDA Blue (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat May 1	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PDA White (3rd)	1–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA White

2.00

WLWDW

+0.04

-0.14

68%

3.8

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Pipeline SC (7th)	3–2
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	3–1

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sat Oct 24 vs Bethesda SC · Sat Nov 7 vs FC DELCO See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Bethesda SC (8th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–0	71%
·	Thu Mar 11	at	PDA Blue (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–0	63%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pipeline SC (7th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat May 1	at	Bethesda SC (8th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat May 15	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	1–1	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA Blue

1.67

LWWDW

+0.30

-0.31

61%

4.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Bethesda SC (8th)	3–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	PDA White (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Pipeline SC (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs HEX FC Bucks · Sat Nov 7 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sat Nov 14 vs Maryland United FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–0	67%
·	Thu Mar 11	vs	PDA White (3rd)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pipeline SC (7th)	1–0	63%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Bethesda SC (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun May 2	at	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals

1.60

WWDDL

+0.18

-0.10

31%

5.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	1–2
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Bethesda SC (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pipeline SC (7th)	3–1

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs PDA White · Sat Oct 24 at FC DELCO · Sat Oct 31 at HEX FC Bucks See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	PDA White (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pipeline SC (7th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	PDA White (3rd)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–0	65%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun May 2	at	Bethesda SC (8th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat May 8	vs	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat May 15	at	PDA Blue (4th)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Match Fit Surf

1.33

WLDDW

-0.24

-0.05

48%

4.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	3–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	7–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	PDA White (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Pipeline SC · Sat Oct 31 at Bethesda SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Pipeline SC (7th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Bethesda SC (8th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	PDA White (3rd)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat May 1	at	Pipeline SC (7th)	1–0	62%
·	Sun May 9	vs	Bethesda SC (8th)	2–0	83%
·	Sat May 15	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sat May 22	at	PDA Blue (4th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pipeline SC

-5

1.00

WLWLL

-0.04

+0.08

7.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	PDA White (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Bethesda SC (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Match Fit Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs HEX FC Bucks · Sat Nov 14 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Bethesda SC (8th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PDA Blue (4th)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA White (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–1	17%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sun May 16	at	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	2–0	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bethesda SC

-13

0.50

LLLWL

+0.10

+0.12

8.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Pipeline SC (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at PDA White · Sat Oct 31 vs Match Fit Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Maryland United FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	PDA White (3rd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Pipeline SC (7th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA Blue (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat May 1	vs	PDA White (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	0–2	13%
·	Sun May 9	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–2	5%
·	Sat May 15	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	0–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Maryland United FC

-6

0.25

LDLL

+0.35

-0.01

8.1

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Pipeline SC (7th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sat Nov 7 at Bethesda SC · Sun Nov 8 vs HEX FC Bucks See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Bethesda SC (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	PDA Blue (4th)	0–1	12%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	PDA White (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	HEX FC Bucks (10th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	Pipeline SC (7th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	PDA White (3rd)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Bethesda SC (8th)	1–0	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HEX FC Bucks

-22

0.00

LLLLL

+0.58

+0.11

9.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC DELCO (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Bethesda SC (8th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	PDA White (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at PDA Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sat Nov 7 at Pipeline SC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	PDA Blue (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Pipeline SC (7th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Maryland United FC (9th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Maryland United FC (9th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Match Fit Surf (6th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	PDA White (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Penn Fusion Soccer Academy (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Bethesda SC (8th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC DELCO (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun May 2	vs	PDA Blue (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat May 8	at	Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals (5th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Pipeline SC (7th)	0–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.56 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.