SUSA FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · New England GU14 · 9 teams · SUSA FC (all teams)

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5th

2-1-2 record · 5 played

1.40 points per game

+3 goal diff · 7–4

WWLDLlast 5

70% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.6

+0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:20 PM

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SUSA FC
5th · 1.40 PPG

Connecticut FC United
9th · 0.00 PPG

The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex, field 3 ↗

61% 22% 17%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.9 for, 0.9 against · 2.05 expected points)

Season so far	SUSA FC	Connecticut FC United
Position	5th	9th
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-2	0-0-1
Points per game	1.40	0.00
Goals for / game	1.4	1.0
Goals against / game	0.8	3.0
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	2	0
Form (recent first)	L D L W W	L
Biggest win	3–0 vs FC Stars Blue	—
Worst loss	0–1 vs FC Stars White	1–3 vs World Class FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.45	-0.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.38	+0.68

Common opponents: World Class FC — we 3–1; they 1–3.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Connecticut FC United concede 3.0/game; worst result 1–3 vs World Class FC.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs FC Stars White, 0–1 at Scorpions SC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 61% / draw 22% / loss 17%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Connecticut FC United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SUSA FC – Connecticut FC United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.67 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 1.67 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 1.33 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 1.17 PPG	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1	8th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

10% finish 1st

70% top 4

30% below the top 4

3.6 average finish

1st 10%
2nd 15%
3rd 20%
4th 24%
5th 22%
6th 6%
7th 2%
8th 1%
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	World Class FC	2.25 (+0.85)	3rd (1.85)	29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
2	Scorpions SC	2.00 (+0.60)	2nd (1.90)	25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
3	Select South	2.00 (+0.60)	1st (1.90)	25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
4	FC Stars White	1.67 (+0.27)	5th (1.69)	20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link SUSA FC to Connecticut FC United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

0 favour them

+4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.31 · 9th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:20 PM	Connecticut FC United 9th · 0-0-1 · GD -2	Home The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	1–0	2.05	1.51	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 09:40 AM	FSA FC 8th · 0-1-2 · GD -12	Home The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	2–0	2.61	1.67	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 TBD	East Meadow Soccer Club 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -4	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	1–0	2.01	1.71	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM	FSA FC 8th · 0-1-2 · GD -12	Away far trip FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.45	1.79	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 TBD	FC Stars Blue 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -4	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	1–0	1.83	1.80	Swing game
Sun Mar 21 TBD	FC Stars White 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +5	Away	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.26	1.75	Upside
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Connecticut FC United 9th · 0-0-1 · GD -2	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	1–1	1.82	1.75	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Select South 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +4	Home	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.47	1.73	Upside
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Scorpions SC 2nd · 3-1-1 · GD +4	Home	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.48	1.71	Upside
Sat Apr 24 TBD	World Class FC 1st · 3-0-1 · GD +6	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	42%	1–1	1.51	1.70	Swing game
Sat May 1 11:15 AM	East Meadow Soccer Club 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -4	Away far trip East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–1	1.78	1.70	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

World Class FC

2.25

LWWW

-0.61

+0.02

81%

2.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FSA FC (8th)	6–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Connecticut FC United (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	SUSA FC (5th)	1–3

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Select South · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Stars Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Stars White See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Select South (3rd)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Stars Blue (6th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Stars White (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Scorpions SC (2nd)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Select South (3rd)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Scorpions SC (2nd)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars White (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Stars Blue (6th)	1–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SUSA FC (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Connecticut FC United (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat May 15	at	FSA FC (8th)	3–1	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Scorpions SC

2.00

WDLWW

+0.15

-0.23

86%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	SUSA FC (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	3–0
L	Wed Oct 7	at	Select South (3rd)	1–4
D	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Stars Blue (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Stars White (4th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Select South · Sat Nov 14 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 15 vs World Class FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Select South (3rd)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Connecticut FC United (9th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	World Class FC (1st)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Stars Blue (6th)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	FC Stars White (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Connecticut FC United (9th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	World Class FC (1st)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FSA FC (8th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SUSA FC (5th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat May 1	at	FSA FC (8th)	3–0	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Select South

2.00

DWDW

+0.28

-0.26

88%

2.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	4–3
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	SUSA FC (5th)	1–1
W	Wed Oct 7	vs	Scorpions SC (2nd)	4–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Stars White (4th)	0–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs World Class FC · Sat Oct 24 at FC Stars Blue · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	World Class FC (1st)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Stars Blue (6th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Scorpions SC (2nd)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Connecticut FC United (9th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Stars White (4th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	FC Stars Blue (6th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	FSA FC (8th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	World Class FC (1st)	1–2	36%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Connecticut FC United (9th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	FSA FC (8th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	SUSA FC (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	2–1	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars White

1.67

LWLWW

-0.19

-0.06

66%

3.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Stars Blue (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	SUSA FC (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FSA FC (8th)	7–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Scorpions SC (2nd)	1–4
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Select South (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 8 at World Class FC · Sat Feb 27 at FC Stars Blue See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Connecticut FC United (9th)	1–1	54%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	World Class FC (1st)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	FC Stars Blue (6th)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Select South (3rd)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Scorpions SC (2nd)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	SUSA FC (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	World Class FC (1st)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Connecticut FC United (9th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun May 16	at	FSA FC (8th)	2–0	79%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SUSA FC

1.40

WWLDL

+0.38

-0.31

70%

3.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Scorpions SC (2nd)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Select South (3rd)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Stars White (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars Blue (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	World Class FC (1st)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Oct 25 vs FSA FC · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Connecticut FC United (9th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FSA FC (8th)	2–0	83%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FSA FC (8th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Stars Blue (6th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Stars White (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Connecticut FC United (9th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Select South (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Scorpions SC (2nd)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	World Class FC (1st)	1–1	42%
·	Sat May 1	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	1–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars Blue

-4

1.00

DDLWL

-0.11

+0.10

7.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Stars White (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SUSA FC (5th)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Scorpions SC (2nd)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	FSA FC (8th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Select South · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC · Sun Nov 8 at Connecticut FC United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Select South (3rd)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	World Class FC (1st)	0–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Connecticut FC United (9th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Stars White (4th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Scorpions SC (2nd)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Select South (3rd)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	SUSA FC (5th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Connecticut FC United (9th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	World Class FC (1st)	1–1	20%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	FSA FC (8th)	1–1	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Meadow Soccer Club

-4

0.60

LWLLL

+0.38

-0.17

6.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Select South (3rd)	3–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Scorpions SC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Stars Blue (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars White (4th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	World Class FC (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FSA FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Connecticut FC United · Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FSA FC (8th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Connecticut FC United (9th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SUSA FC (5th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FSA FC (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Stars White (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Stars Blue (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	World Class FC (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Scorpions SC (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Select South (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Connecticut FC United (9th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SUSA FC (5th)	1–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FSA FC

-12

0.33

DLL

+0.25

+0.19

8.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	World Class FC (1st)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Stars White (4th)	0–7
D	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Stars Blue (6th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Meadow Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at SUSA FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Connecticut FC United See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SUSA FC (5th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Connecticut FC United (9th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SUSA FC (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Select South (3rd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Select South (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Scorpions SC (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Stars Blue (6th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Scorpions SC (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat May 15	vs	World Class FC (1st)	1–3	6%
·	Sun May 16	vs	FC Stars White (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sat May 22	at	Connecticut FC United (9th)	1–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Connecticut FC United

-2

0.00

+0.68

-0.03

6.8

Sat Oct 3

World Class FC (1st)

1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SUSA FC · Sun Oct 25 at East Meadow Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at FSA FC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SUSA FC (5th)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FSA FC (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Stars White (4th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Stars Blue (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Scorpions SC (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Select South (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Scorpions SC (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Select South (3rd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SUSA FC (5th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars Blue (6th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Stars White (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (7th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	World Class FC (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 22	vs	FSA FC (8th)	2–1	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.65 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.