FC Wisconsin

ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU17 · 4 teams · FC Wisconsin Girls (all teams)

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3rd

1-1-4 record · 6 played

0.67 points per game

-22 goal diff · 4–26

LLLWlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2

+1.92 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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FC Wisconsin
3rd · 0.67 PPG

Evolution
4th · 0.00 PPG

FC Wisconsin Soccer Park, Field 1 - Val Olla Field ↗

38% 22% 40%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.8 against · 1.37 expected points)

Season so far	FC Wisconsin	Evolution
Position	3rd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-4	0-0-8
Points per game	0.67	0.00
Goals for / game	0.7	0.3
Goals against / game	4.3	3.5
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	3	5
Form (recent first)	W L L L	L L L L L
Biggest win	2–1 vs Chicago Inter	—
Worst loss	0–13 vs FC 1974 Libertyville	0–5 vs FC 1974 Libertyville
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-2.59	-1.56
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+1.92	+2.27

Common opponents: Rockford Raptors FC — we 0–5; they 0–2. FC 1974 Libertyville — we 0–13; they 0–5, 0–3. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 0–1; they 0–3. Chicago Inter — we 2–1; they 0–5.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Evolution average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 5 of 8.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 vs Rockford Raptors FC, 0–13 vs FC 1974 Libertyville, 0–1 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 38%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Confidence is low on their side
Evolution have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Evolution game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Wisconsin – Evolution) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 0.71 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 1.00 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 0.71 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 0.57 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

3.2 average finish

1st
2nd 1%
3rd 79%
4th 20%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.73 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC 1974 Libertyville	3.00 (+2.33)	1st (2.90)	29 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Rockford Raptors FC	1.57 (+0.90)	2nd (1.53)	14 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection

How the results connect

3 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link FC Wisconsin to Evolution through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

3 favour them

-7.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

3 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.11 · 2nd hardest of 4

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	Evolution 4th · 0-0-8 · GD -26	Home FC Wisconsin Soccer Park	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.37	0.77	Upside
Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM	FC 1974 Libertyville 1st · 8-0-0 · GD +39	Away far trip LTSC	●●●●● Very tough	0%	0–7	0.01	0.67	Upside
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM	Evolution 4th · 0-0-8 · GD -26	Away far trip Stuart Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–2	1.09	0.72	Upside
Sat Nov 7 TBD	Nationals SC	Home	●●●●● Very tough	12%	1–3	0.46	0.69	Upside
Sat Nov 21 TBD	Rockford Raptors FC 2nd · 3-2-2 · GD +3	Away	●●●●● Very tough	5%	1–4	0.21	0.65	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC 1974 Libertyville

+39

3.00

WWWWW

-1.91

-0.52

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Evolution (4th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Wisconsin (3rd)	13–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Evolution (4th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (2nd)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Wisconsin (3rd)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Rockford Raptors FC (2nd)	3–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Rockford Raptors FC

1.57

WWLDL

-2.05

+0.54

100%

2.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	2–3
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Nationals SC (—)	4–8
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Evolution (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	FC Wisconsin (3rd)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Oct 25 at Evolution · Sat Oct 31 vs FC 1974 Libertyville See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Evolution (4th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Wisconsin (3rd)	4–1	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Wisconsin

-22

0.67

LLLW

+1.92

+0.11

100%

3.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–13
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Evolution · Sun Oct 25 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Oct 31 at Evolution See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Evolution (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Evolution (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Nationals SC (—)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Rockford Raptors FC (2nd)	1–4	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Evolution

-26

0.00

LLLLL

+2.27

-1.55

100%

3.8

L	Sun Oct 4	at	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Chicago Inter (—)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Rockford Raptors FC (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Eclipse Select Soccer Club (—)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	FC 1974 Libertyville (1st)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wisconsin · Sun Oct 25 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Wisconsin See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Wisconsin (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Rockford Raptors FC (2nd)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Wisconsin (3rd)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.60 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.