Gretna Elite Academy
ECNL Regional League Girls · Heartland GU14 · 6 teams · Gretna Elite Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 22, 11:00 AM
Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl, Field 2 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.7 against · 0.88 expected points)
| Season so far | Gretna Elite Academy | Toca Fusion Elite |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-5 | 5-2-1 |
| Points per game | 1.10 | 2.13 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 3.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W W D | W W W L D |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Omaha United SC | 5–1 vs Sporting Blue Valley |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Sporting Blue Valley | 1–2 vs FC United Iowa |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.20 | +1.25 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.14 | -0.21 |
Common opponents: FC United Iowa — we 1–2; they 1–2. Omaha United SC — we 4–0; they 3–0. Kansas City Athletics — we 3–0; they 0–0. Sporting Blue Valley — we 0–2; they 5–1. Kansas Rush Gold — we 0–2; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Toca Fusion Elite score 3.1/game — well above the league's 1.5.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Toca Fusion Elite concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–1 vs AFA Fillies, 0–0 vs Missouri Rush, 0–2 vs Sporting Blue Valley, 0–2 at Kansas Rush Gold.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Toca Fusion Elite have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Toca Fusion Elite game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Gretna Elite Academy – Toca Fusion Elite) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.27 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.09 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 55%
- 5th 27%
- 6th 8%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.05 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas Rush Gold | 2.29 (+1.19) | 2nd (2.01) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 2 | Toca Fusion Elite | 2.13 (+1.03) | 1st (2.16) | 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Omaha United SC | 1.90 (+0.80) | 3rd (1.50) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
How the results connect
12 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Gretna Elite Academy to Toca Fusion Elite through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.18 · 2nd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 22 11:00 AM |
Toca Fusion Elite 2nd · 5-2-1 · GD +20 |
Home Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
0–1 | 0.88 | 1.08 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Omaha United SC 3rd · 6-1-3 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.13 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
FC United Iowa |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.16 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Sporting Iowa |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.20 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.23 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite 2nd · 5-2-1 · GD +20 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
0–1 | 0.69 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Sporting Blue Valley 5th · 3-0-6 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
1–1 | 1.68 | 1.24 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Kansas City Athletics 6th · 1-3-4 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–0 | 1.69 | 1.27 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 04:15 PM |
Kansas Rush Gold 1st · 5-1-1 · GD +6 |
Home Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.27 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas Rush Gold | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 16 | 2.29 | DWLW | +0.28 | -0.05 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kansas City Athletics · Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sun Nov 8 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Toca Fusion Elite | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 17 | 2.13 | DLWWW | -0.21 | -0.02 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher MO · Sun Nov 8 vs St. Louis Scott Gallagher IL · Sun Nov 22 at Gretna Elite Academy See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Omaha United SC | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 19 | 1.90 | WLWWL | +0.17 | +0.18 | 99% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Mar 13 vs Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs Sporting Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Gretna Elite Academy | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 | 1.10 | DWWLL | -0.14 | +0.18 | 65% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Toca Fusion Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Omaha United SC · Sat Mar 20 vs FC United Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sporting Blue Valley | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 9 | 1.00 | LLWLL | +0.31 | +0.14 | 27% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 vs FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 22 vs Sporting Iowa · Sat Mar 13 vs Toca Fusion Elite See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Kansas City Athletics | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 | 0.75 | LDLLD | +0.19 | +0.19 | 10% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Kansas Rush Gold · Sat Nov 21 vs Sporting Iowa · Sun Nov 22 vs FC United Iowa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.45 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.