Gulf Coast United FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Gulf Coast GU17 · 9 teams · Gulf Coast United FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Feb 27, 11:00 AM
Jackson County Soccer Complex- 4420 Audubon Lane G, field 2 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.6 for, 3.4 against · 0.57 expected points)
| Season so far | Gulf Coast United FC | Hattiesburg Futbol Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-7 | 3-1-4 |
| Points per game | 0.38 | 1.25 |
| Goals for / game | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 3.9 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L L | L W W D L |
| Biggest win | 3–1 at LA Krewe Rush | 6–1 at LA Elite SP |
| Worst loss | 0–8 vs Coastal Rush | 0–4 vs Coastal Rush |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.90 | +0.02 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.65 | +0.61 |
Common opponents: Coastal Rush — we 0–5, 0–8; they 0–4, 1–5. Alabama FC Huntsville — we 1–4; they 4–3. Louisiana Fire SC — we 1–5; they 2–3. Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers — we 1–4; they 3–4. Union 10 — we 1–3, 0–1; they 1–1. LA Krewe Rush — we 3–1; they 2–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 at Coastal Rush, 0–8 vs Coastal Rush, 0–1 at Union 10.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 15%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Hattiesburg Futbol Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Gulf Coast United FC – Hattiesburg Futbol Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Feb 22 – Sun Feb 28); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.33 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.67 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.44 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.33 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we fall to at least 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 17%
- 8th 45%
- 9th 37%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.69 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coastal Rush | 3.00 (+2.62) | 1st (2.85) | 45 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Louisiana Fire SC | 2.38 (+2.00) | 2nd (2.14) | 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | 2.00 (+1.62) | 3rd (1.93) | 29 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 1.63 (+1.25) | 4th (1.67) | 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 5 | Hattiesburg Futbol Club | 1.25 (+0.87) | 5th (1.49) | 17 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 6 | Union 10 | 1.18 (+0.80) | 6th (1.02) | 16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 7 | LA Elite SP | 0.75 (+0.37) | 7th (0.78) | 9 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
How the results connect
68 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Gulf Coast United FC to Hattiesburg Futbol Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.26 · 7th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 12:00 PM no score posted |
Alabama FC Huntsville 4th · 3-4-1 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
Merrimack Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.19 | 0.35 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 11:00 AM |
Hattiesburg Futbol Club 5th · 3-1-4 · GD -2 |
Home Jackson County Soccer Complex- 4420 Audubon Lane G |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.57 | 0.38 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM |
LA Krewe Rush 9th · 1-1-9 · GD -32 |
Home Jackson County Soccer Complex- 4420 Audubon Lane G |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.68 | 0.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 10:00 AM |
LA Elite SP 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -10 |
Home Jackson County Soccer Complex- 4420 Audubon Lane G |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.25 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 01:00 PM |
LA Elite SP 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Burbank Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.95 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 10:00 AM |
Hattiesburg Futbol Club 5th · 3-1-4 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Tatum Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.38 | 0.57 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 03:00 PM |
Louisiana Fire SC 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Matt Savoie Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–4 | 0.15 | 0.54 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers 3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +8 |
Home Jackson County Soccer Complex- 4420 Audubon Lane G |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.36 | 0.53 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Coastal Rush | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 2 | +41 | 27 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.74 | +0.04 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Oct 10 at Louisiana Fire SC · Sun Oct 11 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Louisiana Fire SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 19 | 2.38 | WWDWW | -0.45 | +0.09 | 100% | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs LA Elite SP · Sun Nov 8 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 14 | 2.00 | DWLDW | +0.05 | -0.21 | 95% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Nov 15 vs Union 10 · Sat Mar 13 vs LA Elite SP See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 13 | 1.63 | DDWWD | -0.55 | +0.37 | 76% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Gulf Coast United FC · Sun Oct 11 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Hattiesburg Futbol Club | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 10 | 1.25 | LDWWL | +0.61 | -0.63 | 29% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Union 10 · Sun Oct 11 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Feb 27 at Gulf Coast United FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Union 10 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 | 1.18 | LWWLL | -0.49 | +1.13 | 0% | 6.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sun Oct 25 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Nov 8 at Coastal Rush See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | LA Elite SP | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.06 | +0.25 | 0% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 at Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Nov 7 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Gulf Coast United FC | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLWL | +0.65 | -0.26 | 0% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Feb 27 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Mar 6 vs LA Krewe Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | LA Krewe Rush | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 41 | -32 | 4 | 0.36 | WLLLL | +0.75 | -0.80 | 0% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 6 at Gulf Coast United FC · Sun Mar 7 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Mar 20 at LA Elite SP See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.23 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.