Louisiana Fire SC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Gulf Coast GU16 · 9 teams · Louisiana Fire SC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM
Matt Savoie Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.8 for, 0.9 against · 1.94 expected points)
| Season so far | Louisiana Fire SC | LA Elite SP |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-1-1 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.38 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L W W W |
| Biggest win | 5–1 vs Alabama FC Huntsville | 2–0 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Coastal Rush | 1–2 at Union 10 |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.01 | +0.33 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.38 | -0.80 |
Common opponents: Union 10 — we 2–2, 2–0; they 1–0, 1–2. Hattiesburg Futbol Club — we 1–0; they 2–0. Alabama FC Huntsville — we 5–1; they 4–2.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 57% / draw 23% / loss 20%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the LA Elite SP game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Louisiana Fire SC – LA Elite SP) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.44 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.44 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.22 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.11 PPG |
4th▼ down 3 | 4th▼ down 3 | 4th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 37%
- 2nd 31%
- 3rd 20%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 3%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
34 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Louisiana Fire SC to LA Elite SP through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
17 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.15 · 6th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 11:00 AM no score posted |
Coastal Rush 4th · 5-2-1 · GD +15 |
Home Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.46 | 2.27 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM |
LA Elite SP 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +4 |
Home Matt Savoie Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
1–0 | 1.94 | 2.24 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
Alabama FC Huntsville 9th · 0-0-8 · GD -24 |
Away far trip
Merrimack Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.73 | 2.28 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM |
Hattiesburg Futbol Club 8th · 1-0-6 · GD -12 |
Home Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
2–0 | 2.58 | 2.31 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 03:00 PM |
Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Pelican Park Purple Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 2.26 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 11:00 AM |
LA Elite SP 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Burbank Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.72 | 2.22 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
Gulf Coast United FC 5th · 5-1-2 · GD +9 |
Home Matt Savoie Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.72 | 2.18 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +10 |
Home Lafreniere Park Turf Field Complex · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.87 | 2.16 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Louisiana Fire SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 19 | 2.38 | WWWWW | -0.38 | +0.15 | 97% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs LA Elite SP · Sun Nov 8 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LA Elite SP | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 | 2.25 | WWWL | -0.80 | +0.26 | 33% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 at Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Nov 7 at Alabama FC Huntsville See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLWW | -0.59 | +0.32 | 67% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Nov 15 vs Union 10 · Sat Mar 13 vs LA Elite SP See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Coastal Rush | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 17 | 2.13 | WDWWW | +0.02 | -0.36 | 98% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Oct 10 at Louisiana Fire SC · Sun Oct 11 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Gulf Coast United FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 16 | 2.00 | WWDWL | +0.18 | -0.34 | 92% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Feb 27 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Mar 6 vs LA Krewe Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Union 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 17 | 1.55 | WLWLW | +0.34 | -0.62 | 13% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sun Oct 25 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sun Nov 8 at Coastal Rush See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | LA Krewe Rush | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 9 | 0.82 | LWLLL | +0.13 | +0.22 | 0% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 6 at Gulf Coast United FC · Sun Mar 7 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Mar 20 at LA Elite SP See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Hattiesburg Futbol Club | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLLL | +0.11 | +0.24 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Union 10 · Sun Oct 11 at Alabama FC Huntsville · Sat Feb 27 at Gulf Coast United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Alabama FC Huntsville | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.14 | +0.46 | 0% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Gulf Coast United FC · Sun Oct 11 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Oct 24 vs Coastal Rush See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.68 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.