Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 09/10 GMA
ECNL Regional League Girls · GMA GU17 · 12 teams · Liverpool FC-IA Michigan (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Clarkston High School pond, Field 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.6 against · 1.76 expected points)
| Season so far | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 09/10 GMA | Liverpool FC MI GMA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-3 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.6 | 4.8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W L L | W L L W L |
| Biggest win | 1–0 vs Michigan Burn | 2–1 vs Detroit City FC West |
| Worst loss | 1–7 at Cap City Athletic 1847 | 0–9 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.18 | -2.20 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
Common opponents: Cap City Athletic 1847 — we 1–7; they 0–9. Michigan Burn — we 1–0; they 2–5. Nationals SC-Union GMA — we 0–4; they 1–5. Detroit City FC West — we 1–0; they 2–1.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Liverpool FC MI GMA concede 4.8/game; worst result 0–9 vs Cap City Athletic 1847.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Legends FC, 0–4 vs Nationals SC-Union GMA.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 52% / draw 20% / loss 28%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Michigan Burn sit 6th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.20.A point moves us above Michigan Burn on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Liverpool FC MI GMA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 09/10 GMA – Liverpool FC MI GMA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 7th— holds | 9th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th 2%
- 6th 20%
- 7th 27%
- 8th 26%
- 9th 15%
- 10th 7%
- 11th 2%
- 12th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.18 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Rangers FC | 3.00 (+1.80) | 1st (2.67) | 27 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Nationals SC-Union GMA | 3.00 (+1.80) | 3rd (2.51) | 27 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Portage SC | 2.57 (+1.37) | 2nd (2.60) | 23 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 2.40 (+1.20) | 4th (2.27) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Legends FC | 2.00 (+0.80) | 5th (1.71) | 16 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 6 | Michigan Burn | 1.20 (+0.00) | 7th (1.13) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 09/10 GMA to Liverpool FC MI GMA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.08 · 8th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Liverpool FC MI GMA 9th · 2-0-4 · GD -21 |
Home Clarkston High School pond |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.76 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM |
Plymouth Reign 11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20 |
Home Clarkston Stadium High School Field · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.74 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM |
Portage SC 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +35 |
Away far trip
Portage Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.06 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Fri Nov 6 06:00 PM |
Nationals SC-CA GMA 10th · 1-0-5 · GD -13 |
Away far trip
Capital Area Sports Plex |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
TKO Premier SC 8th · 2-0-4 · GD -13 |
Away far trip
Kalamazoo Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.11 | 1.20 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 12:30 PM |
Michigan Rangers FC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +27 |
Away far trip
Davenport - Farmers Insurance Field · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–4 | 0.08 | 1.10 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Michigan Rangers FC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | +27 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.96 | +0.27 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sun Oct 25 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-Union GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC-Union GMA | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | +22 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.39 | +0.81 | 99% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC · Wed Oct 28 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Portage SC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 5 | +35 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | -0.13 | -0.57 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC MI GMA · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 09/10 GMA See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLWW | -0.44 | +0.06 | 96% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Rangers FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Burn See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Legends FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.39 | -0.12 | 6% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Burn · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC-Union GMA See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Michigan Burn | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 6 | 1.20 | LWWLL | +0.18 | +0.05 | 0% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at TKO Premier SC · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cap City Athletic 1847 See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 09/10 GMA | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 6 | 1.20 | LLWLW | +0.33 | -0.08 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC MI GMA · Sun Oct 25 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Nov 1 at Portage SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | TKO Premier SC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 | 1.00 | WWLLL | +0.76 | -0.55 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Michigan Burn · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Rangers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Liverpool FC MI GMA | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 29 | -21 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLLW | +0.33 | -0.01 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Nationals SC-CA GMA · Sat Oct 24 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 09/10 GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Portage SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Nationals SC-CA GMA | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLWL | +0.34 | -0.19 | 0% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Liverpool FC MI GMA · Sat Oct 24 at Portage SC · Sat Oct 31 at TKO Premier SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Plymouth Reign | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 29 | -20 | 3 | 0.50 | LWLLL | -0.09 | +0.55 | 0% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO G 09/10 GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Michigan Burn See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Detroit City FC West | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLWL | -0.27 | +0.98 | 0% | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.41 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.