T3FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · GLA GU14 · 6 teams · T3 Futbol Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:30 PM
Victory Sports Park, Field 2 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.8 for, 0.9 against · 2.43 expected points)
| Season so far | T3FC | Elite FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-0 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / game | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W | L L W D |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy | 3–0 vs Cincinnati Elite FC |
| Worst loss | — | 2–7 vs Steel City FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.32 | -0.35 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.99 | -0.43 |
Common opponents: FC Dayton — we 2–1; they 0–0. Cincinnati Elite FC — we 2–0; they 3–0.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Elite FC concede 2.5/game; worst result 2–7 vs Steel City FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 76% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Elite FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (T3FC – Elite FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.71 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.57 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 100%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
6 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link T3FC to Elite FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.36 · 5th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:30 PM |
Elite FC 4th · 1-2-3 · GD -7 |
Home Victory Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.43 | 2.92 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
Columbus Force 3rd · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Home T3 Lorain |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–1 | 2.27 | 2.84 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Cincinnati Elite FC 6th · 0-0-7 · GD -32 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
4–0 | 2.92 | 2.85 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
FC Dayton 2nd · 2-3-2 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–1 | 1.88 | 2.75 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy 5th · 1-0-3 · GD -10 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
3–0 | 2.79 | 2.75 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Steel City FC |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.28 | 2.71 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Northern Steel |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.28 | 2.68 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Columbus Force 3rd · 2-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.01 | 2.63 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 03:00 PM |
Elite FC 4th · 1-2-3 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Shelly Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.23 | 2.61 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | T3FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.99 | -0.36 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Elite FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Columbus Force · Sat Mar 13 vs Cincinnati Elite FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Dayton | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 9 | 1.29 | LWDWD | -0.05 | -0.56 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cincinnati Elite FC · Sat Mar 6 vs Columbus Force · Sun Mar 7 vs Elite FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Columbus Force | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLW | -0.63 | -0.23 | 97% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy · Sun Nov 8 at T3FC · Sat Mar 6 at FC Dayton See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Elite FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 5 | 0.83 | DWLL | -0.43 | -0.16 | 84% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at T3FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 6 at Cincinnati Elite FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 3 | 0.75 | WLL | -0.07 | -0.05 | 20% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Columbus Force · Sun Oct 25 vs Elite FC · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Erie See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Cincinnati Elite FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 34 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.04 | +0.12 | 0% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dayton · Sat Mar 6 vs Elite FC · Sun Mar 7 vs Columbus Force See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.