Arkansas Comets FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Frontier GU18/19 · 8 teams · Arkansas Comets FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:00 PM
Edmond Soccer Club, ESC 5 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.3 against · 1.92 expected points)
| Season so far | Arkansas Comets FC | OK Energy FC Frontier |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-5 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.13 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 3.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L W | L L W D |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs West Side Alliance Tulsa | 4–2 at Oklahoma Cosmos |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at FC Tulsa Academy | 0–11 vs Arkansas Rising |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.18 | -1.78 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.75 | +0.27 |
Common opponents: FC Tulsa Academy — we 0–4; they 0–5. Arkansas Rising — we 0–2; they 0–11.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
OK Energy FC Frontier average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 3 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–1 vs FC Wichita Red, 0–2 at FC Wichita Red, 0–4 at FC Tulsa Academy, 0–2 at Arkansas Rising.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 57% / draw 20% / loss 22%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Edmond Soccer Club.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
OK Energy FC Frontier sit 5th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.13.A point moves us above OK Energy FC Frontier on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the OK Energy FC Frontier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arkansas Comets FC – OK Energy FC Frontier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.33 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 |
| Win 1.33 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.11 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 79%
- 6th 2%
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Wichita Red | 2.67 (+1.54) | 1st (2.52) | 32 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Kansas City Surf BLUE | 2.63 (+1.50) | 2nd (2.38) | 31 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | FC Tulsa Academy | 2.50 (+1.37) | 3rd (2.33) | 29 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Arkansas Rising | 1.30 (+0.17) | 4th (1.63) | A point next game |
| 5 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 1.17 (+0.04) | 6th (0.77) | A point next game |
How the results connect
16 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Arkansas Comets FC to OK Energy FC Frontier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -1.01 · 7th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 03:00 PM |
OK Energy FC Frontier 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 1.21 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -34 |
Away far trip
South Lakes Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.50 | 1.34 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Toca Fusion Premier |
Home Lewis Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Arkansas Rising 4th · 4-1-5 · GD +23 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.71 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
FC Tulsa Academy 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +25 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
0–2 | 0.51 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 11:00 AM |
OK Energy FC Frontier 5th · 2-1-3 · GD -14 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.17 | 1.30 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 17 11:00 AM |
Oklahoma Cosmos 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -34 |
Home Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–1 | 2.67 | 1.39 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Wichita Red | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 5 | +23 | 24 | 2.67 | WWWLW | +1.23 | -0.81 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs West Side Alliance OKC · Sun Oct 25 vs Kansas City Surf BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Tulsa Academy See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Kansas City Surf BLUE | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 5 | +20 | 21 | 2.63 | WWWWW | +1.10 | -0.63 | 100% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Wichita Red · Tue Nov 3 vs Kansas City Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Oklahoma Cosmos See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Tulsa Academy | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 3 | +25 | 15 | 2.50 | WWLWW | -0.58 | +0.09 | 100% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at OK Energy FC Frontier · Sun Nov 1 at FC Wichita Red · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Arkansas Rising | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 37 | 14 | +23 | 13 | 1.30 | WWWLL | +0.31 | -0.69 | 81% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sun Nov 8 vs Toca Fusion Premier · Sat Nov 14 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | OK Energy FC Frontier | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 7 | 1.17 | DWLL | +0.27 | +0.57 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs FC Tulsa Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Wichita Red See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Arkansas Comets FC | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 9 | 1.13 | WLLLL | +1.75 | -1.01 | 19% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier · Sun Nov 1 at Oklahoma Cosmos · Sat Nov 7 vs Toca Fusion Premier See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sporting Springfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. |
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| 8 | Oklahoma Cosmos | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 38 | -34 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.89 | +0.75 | 0% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sat Nov 7 at Kansas City Surf BLUE See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.46 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.