Florida Premier FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU13 · 9 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Dec 6, 09:00 AM
Starkey Ranch District Park, Field 6 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.9 for, 0.8 against · 2.75 expected points)
| Season so far | Florida Premier FC | Sporting SA TLH |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 8-0-2 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W L | L D W L |
| Biggest win | 6–0 at Sporting SA JAX | 1–0 at Florida Kraze Krush |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Fishhawk Premier FC | 1–5 vs St. Petersburg FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.79 | -0.74 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.38 | -0.19 |
Common opponents: Sporting SA JAX — we 6–0, 3–2; they 2–4. Tampa Bay United — we 3–0, 6–0; they 0–0. Florida Kraze Krush — we 1–2; they 1–0. St. Petersburg FC — we 4–2; they 1–5.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 89% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting SA TLH game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Florida Premier FC – Sporting SA TLH) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.45 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.45 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.27 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.18 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 96%
- 2nd 4%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
36 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Florida Premier FC to Sporting SA TLH through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 4th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Dec 6 09:00 AM |
Sporting SA TLH 7th · 1-1-2 · GD -5 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.75 | 2.43 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 PM |
Fishhawk Premier FC 2nd · 5-4-1 · GD +14 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 2.39 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
Florida Kraze Krush 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +2 |
Home Wiregrass Ranch Sports Campus · grass |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.22 | 2.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
Seminole United 6th · 1-4-2 · GD -5 |
Home Wiregrass Ranch Sports Campus · grass |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
2–0 | 2.58 | 2.39 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
St. Petersburg FC 5th · 3-2-3 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Sawgrass Lake Complex · grass |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.25 | 2.38 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM |
Sporting SA TLH 7th · 1-1-2 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Florida State University Rec Sportsplex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–0 | 2.62 | 2.40 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Florida Premier FC | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 9 | +25 | 24 | 2.40 | LWWWW | -0.38 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Dec 6 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Apr 3 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 19 | 1.90 | DDDDW | -0.29 | +0.04 | 97% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 at Florida Premier FC · Sat Apr 3 vs Seminole United See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sporting SA JAX | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 21 | +0 | 17 | 1.70 | DWWDL | +0.26 | -0.53 | 87% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 6 vs Tampa Bay United · Sun Mar 7 vs St. Petersburg FC · Sat Apr 3 at Jacksonville FC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Florida Kraze Krush | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | LLWDW | +0.20 | -0.22 | 72% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seminole United · Sat Oct 24 at Tampa Bay United · Sun Oct 25 at St. Petersburg FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | St. Petersburg FC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 11 | 1.38 | WDWLL | +0.03 | -0.15 | 41% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Mar 6 at Jacksonville FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Seminole United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 | 1.00 | LLDWD | +0.10 | -0.06 | 2% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Oct 17 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Mar 7 at Sporting SA TLH See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sporting SA TLH | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | 1.00 | LWDL | -0.19 | +0.13 | 1% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Seminole United · Sat Oct 24 at St. Petersburg FC · Sun Oct 25 at Tampa Bay United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Jacksonville FC | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 4 | 0.44 | WLLLL | +0.50 | -0.37 | 0% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 6 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs St. Petersburg FC · Sun Mar 7 vs Tampa Bay United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Tampa Bay United | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 3 | 0.38 | LLDDL | +0.42 | -0.19 | 0% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Oct 25 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 at Sporting SA JAX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.