Charlotte SA Blue
ECNL Regional League Girls · Carolinas GU13 · 9 teams · Charlotte Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
Orthocarolina Complex, Field 1 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.1 for, 0.9 against · 2.51 expected points)
| Season so far | Charlotte SA Blue | Highland FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 3-1-3 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.43 |
| Goals for / game | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | D L L L W |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs Wilmington Hammerheads | 4–1 at Catawba Valley YSA |
| Worst loss | — | 1–4 vs Charlotte SA White |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.94 | -0.04 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.08 | -0.02 |
Common opponents: Catawba Valley YSA — we 2–0; they 4–1. Wilmington Hammerheads — we 6–0; they 4–2. NCFC Youth Premier — we 2–1; they 2–1, 1–1. NC Fusion — we 4–1; they 0–2.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Highland FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Charlotte SA Blue – Highland FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 45%
- 2nd 33%
- 3rd 22%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
27 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Charlotte SA Blue to Highland FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 7th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Highland FC 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +0 |
Home Orthocarolina Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–0 | 2.51 | 2.92 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
NCFC Youth Elite 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
WRAL |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.44 | 2.71 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 TBD |
Wilmington Hammerheads 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -19 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.89 | 2.73 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 6 11:00 AM |
Charlotte SA White 2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Frank Liske Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 2.59 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 02:00 PM |
NCFC Youth Elite 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +20 |
Home Orthocarolina Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.72 | 2.51 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 13 01:00 PM |
NC Fusion 6th · 3-0-5 · GD -15 |
Home Orthocarolina Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.82 | 2.54 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 13 12:00 PM |
Catawba Valley YSA 7th · 0-0-6 · GD -9 |
Home Orthocarolina Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.74 | 2.55 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 12:00 PM |
Highland FC 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Buncombe County Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–1 | 2.32 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 01:00 PM |
South Carolina Surf 8th · 0-0-3 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Shea Family Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.82 | 2.55 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 11:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 8th · 0-0-3 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
Shea Family Fields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.82 | 2.57 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 PM |
NCFC Youth Elite 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
WRAL |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.44 | 2.50 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
NCFC Youth Premier 4th · 3-1-3 · GD +2 |
Home Orthocarolina Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–1 | 2.41 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 12:00 PM |
Wilmington Hammerheads 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -19 |
Home Orthocarolina Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
5–0 | 2.94 | 2.52 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
NC Fusion 6th · 3-0-5 · GD -15 |
Home Orthocarolina Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.82 | 2.54 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Charlotte SA White 2nd · 6-0-0 · GD +15 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 2.49 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Charlotte SA Blue | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | +18 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.08 | -0.14 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Highland FC · Sat Oct 31 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Dec 5 at Wilmington Hammerheads See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Charlotte SA White | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.45 | -0.16 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Highland FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Catawba Valley YSA · Sun Nov 1 at NCFC Youth Premier See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NCFC Youth Elite | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 6 | +20 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | -0.87 | -0.06 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Catawba Valley YSA · Sat Oct 24 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Oct 31 vs Charlotte SA Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | NCFC Youth Premier | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 | 1.43 | LWWDW | +0.00 | -0.08 | 68% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Charlotte SA White · Sat Dec 12 at Wilmington Hammerheads See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Highland FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 10 | 1.43 | WLLLD | -0.02 | +0.06 | 30% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA White · Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | NC Fusion | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 9 | 1.13 | LLWWL | +0.48 | -0.20 | 2% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Wilmington Hammerheads · Sun Dec 6 at South Carolina Surf See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Catawba Valley YSA | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.38 | +0.01 | 0% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Oct 31 at Charlotte SA White · Sat Dec 5 at South Carolina Surf See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | South Carolina Surf | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.78 | -0.14 | 0% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NCFC Youth Premier · Sun Oct 25 at NC Fusion · Sat Oct 31 at Highland FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 22 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.82 | +0.03 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Oct 31 at NC Fusion · Sat Dec 5 vs Charlotte SA Blue See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.