Central Washington Sounders
ECNL Regional League Boys · Northwest BU17 · 12 teams · Central Washington Sounders (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.3 for, 2.2 against · 1.96 expected points)
| Season so far | Central Washington Sounders | Washington Premier |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / game | 4.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W L W | D W L L W |
| Biggest win | 12–0 vs Columbia Premier SC | 4–0 at Spokane Shadow |
| Worst loss | 2–3 at Whatcom FC Rangers | 0–3 at Seattle United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.44 | +0.47 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.14 | -0.03 |
Common opponents: Columbia Premier SC — we 12–0; they 4–0. Eastside FC — we 2–1; they 1–4. Spokane Shadow — we 4–2, 4–5; they 4–0. Seattle United — we 4–3; they 0–3.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 60% / draw 16% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Washington Premier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Washington Sounders – Washington Premier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 14%
- 3rd 35%
- 4th 25%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 6%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wenatchee FA -RL B09/10 Black | 2.56 (+0.42) | 1st (2.48) | 39 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 2 | Whatcom FC Rangers | 2.50 (+0.36) | 2nd (2.31) | 38 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection |
How the results connect
29 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Central Washington Sounders to Washington Premier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.19 · 8th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 20 11:00 AM no score posted |
XF 9th · 2-0-4 · GD -18 |
Home Chesterly Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
6–1 | 2.86 | 2.23 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Washington Premier 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +4 |
Home Chesterly Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
3–2 | 1.96 | 2.20 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Valor Soccer 12th · 0-0-6 · GD -18 |
Home Chesterly Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
5–1 | 2.84 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
Northwest United 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -3 |
Home Chesterly Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–1 | 2.34 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
Whatcom FC Rangers 2nd · 6-2-0 · GD +19 |
Home Chesterly Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–2 | 1.14 | 2.18 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
PacNW SC 10th · 1-1-5 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
3–1 | 2.13 | 2.17 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 13 02:00 PM |
Seattle United 5th · 5-0-3 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.23 | 2.11 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 10 TBD |
Wenatchee FA -RL B09/10 Black 1st · 7-2-0 · GD +25 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.58 | 2.00 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 11:00 AM |
Washington Premier 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–2 | 1.62 | 1.98 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 17 TBD |
Valor Soccer 12th · 0-0-6 · GD -18 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.73 | 2.03 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 23 11:00 AM |
Northwest United 8th · 2-1-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.11 | 2.03 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 24 01:00 PM |
Eastside FC 7th · 3-0-5 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
3–2 | 2.03 | 2.03 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 01:00 PM |
Wenatchee FA -RL B09/10 Black 1st · 7-2-0 · GD +25 |
Home Chesterly Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 1.97 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 TBD |
Columbia Premier SC 11th · 0-1-6 · GD -39 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 98% |
7–1 | 2.95 | 2.02 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Wenatchee FA -RL B09/10 Black | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 4 | +25 | 23 | 2.56 | WWWWD | -0.31 | -0.15 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Spokane Shadow · Sat Oct 31 vs Northwest United · Sun Nov 1 vs Whatcom FC Rangers See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Whatcom FC Rangers | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 20 | 2.50 | DWWWW | -0.06 | -0.30 | 98% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Spokane Shadow · Sun Nov 1 at Wenatchee FA -RL B09/10 Black · Sat Nov 7 at Central Washington Sounders See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Central Washington Sounders | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 15 | +15 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWL | +0.14 | -0.19 | 77% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs XF · Sun Oct 25 vs Washington Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs Valor Soccer See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Spokane Shadow | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 18 | 2.00 | WWLWW | -0.14 | -0.12 | 46% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Valor Soccer · Sun Oct 25 at Wenatchee FA -RL B09/10 Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Whatcom FC Rangers See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Seattle United | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 12 | +13 | 15 | 1.88 | WLWLW | -0.28 | -0.11 | 64% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Northwest United · Sat Oct 31 vs PacNW SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Spokane Shadow See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Washington Premier | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWD | -0.03 | -0.13 | 15% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Central Washington Sounders · Sat Oct 31 vs XF · Sat Nov 7 vs Valor Soccer See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Eastside FC | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 9 | 1.13 | LWLWW | +0.65 | -0.46 | 1% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Valor Soccer · Sat Oct 31 vs Columbia Premier SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Northwest United See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Northwest United | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 | 1.00 | LDWLL | -0.61 | +0.25 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Seattle United · Sat Oct 31 at Wenatchee FA -RL B09/10 Black · Sun Nov 1 at Central Washington Sounders See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | XF | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 27 | -18 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLLW | -0.08 | +0.11 | 0% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Central Washington Sounders · Sun Oct 25 vs PacNW SC · Sat Oct 31 at Washington Premier See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | PacNW SC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 4 | 0.57 | WLLLL | +0.52 | -0.28 | 0% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at XF · Sat Oct 31 at Seattle United · Sat Nov 7 at Columbia Premier SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Columbia Premier SC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 42 | -39 | 1 | 0.14 | LLDLL | +0.49 | +0.15 | 0% | 11.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Eastside FC · Sun Nov 1 at Spokane Shadow · Sat Nov 7 vs PacNW SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Valor Soccer | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 20 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.97 | -0.21 | 0% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Spokane Shadow · Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside FC · Sat Oct 31 at Central Washington Sounders See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.