PA Rush

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU17 · 8 teams · PA Rush (all teams)

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6th

0-0-0 record · 0 played

0.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 0–0

last 0

50% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.5

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Dec 5, 01:30 PM

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PA Rush
6th · 0.00 PPG

West-Mont United
7th · 0.00 PPG

Quakertown High School , QNB Field ↗

47% 18% 35%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)

Season so far	PA Rush	West-Mont United
Position	6th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-0	0-0-0
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Goals for / game	0.0	0.0
Goals against / game	0.0	0.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	—	—
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.00	+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+0.00

Game plan

They struggle to score
West-Mont United average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
What a win does
Lancaster FC sit 5th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above Lancaster FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West-Mont United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PA Rush – West-Mont United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	1st▲ up 5	6th— holds	7th▼ down 1
Win 3.00 PPG	1st▲ up 5	1st▲ up 5	6th— holds
Draw 1.00 PPG	1st▲ up 5	7th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 1
Loss 0.00 PPG	8th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

13% finish 1st

50% top 4

50% below the top 4

4.5 average finish

1st 13%
2nd 12%
3rd 12%
4th 13%
5th 12%
6th 13%
7th 14%
8th 12%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Eagle FC	0.00 (+0.00)	3rd (1.41)	Already ahead
2	FC Copa Academy	0.00 (+0.00)	4th (1.41)	Already ahead
3	FC Europa	0.00 (+0.00)	1st (1.41)	Already ahead
4	Keystone Athletic	0.00 (+0.00)	6th (1.41)	Already ahead
5	Lancaster FC	0.00 (+0.00)	5th (1.41)	Already ahead

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 6th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Dec 5 01:30 PM	West-Mont United 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Quakertown High School	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.58	Swing game
Sat Dec 12 02:00 PM	Lancaster FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Quakertown High School	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.58	Swing game
Sat Feb 27 01:30 PM	YMS 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Quakertown High School	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.58	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 01:30 PM	FC Europa 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Quakertown High School	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.58	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Lancaster FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.51	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	West-Mont United 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.47	Upside
Sat Apr 3 12:00 PM	Keystone Athletic 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Quakertown High School	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.48	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	FC Copa Academy 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.45	Upside
Sat Apr 17 02:00 PM	Eagle FC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Quakertown High School	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.47	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Keystone Athletic 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.44	Upside
Sat May 1 03:15 PM	FC Copa Academy 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Quakertown High School	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.46	Swing game
Sat May 8 TBD	YMS 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.44	Upside
Sat May 15 04:00 PM	FC Europa 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away far trip YSC Sports	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.42	Upside
Sun May 23 TBD	Eagle FC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.41	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Eagle FC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sun Dec 6 vs FC Copa Academy · Sat Dec 12 at FC Europa · Sun Feb 28 vs Keystone Athletic See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	YMS (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 9	vs	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 23	vs	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Copa Academy

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sun Dec 6 at Eagle FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Keystone Athletic · Sat Feb 27 vs FC Europa See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	YMS (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	vs	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 22	at	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Europa

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 vs YMS · Sat Dec 12 vs Eagle FC · Sat Feb 27 at FC Copa Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	YMS (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 22	vs	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Keystone Athletic

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Lancaster FC · Sat Dec 12 at FC Copa Academy · Sun Feb 28 at Eagle FC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	vs	YMS (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	at	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	at	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 22	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lancaster FC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Dec 12 at PA Rush · Sat Feb 27 at West-Mont United See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	YMS (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 22	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PA Rush

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 vs West-Mont United · Sat Dec 12 vs Lancaster FC · Sat Feb 27 vs YMS See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	YMS (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	at	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 23	at	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West-Mont United

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 at PA Rush · Sat Dec 12 vs YMS · Sat Feb 27 vs Lancaster FC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	at	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	YMS (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 9	at	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 22	at	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

YMS

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 at FC Europa · Sat Dec 12 at West-Mont United · Sat Feb 27 at PA Rush See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	at	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Europa (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Lancaster FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	West-Mont United (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	PA Rush (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Eagle FC (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Keystone Athletic (4th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.