East Meadow Soccer Club

ECNL Regional League Boys · New England BU18/19 · 6 teams · East Meadow Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd

0-0-0 record · 0 played

0.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 0–0

last 0

80% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Dec 12, TBD

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East Meadow Soccer Club
3rd · 0.00 PPG

SUSA FC
6th · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

35% 18% 47%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)

Season so far	East Meadow Soccer Club	SUSA FC
Position	3rd	6th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-0	0-0-0
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Goals for / game	0.0	0.0
Goals against / game	0.0	0.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	—	—
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.00	+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+0.00

Game plan

They struggle to score
SUSA FC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
East Coast Surf SC sit 2nd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above East Coast Surf SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SUSA FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (East Meadow Soccer Club – SUSA FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	1st▲ up 2	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st▲ up 2	1st▲ up 2	2nd▲ up 1
Draw 1.00 PPG	1st▲ up 2	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 0.00 PPG	6th▼ down 3	6th▼ down 3	6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

20% finish 1st

80% top 4

20% below the top 4

3.0 average finish

1st 20%
2nd 20%
3rd 19%
4th 20%
5th 20%
6th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	AC Connecticut	0.00 (+0.00)	1st (1.47)	Already ahead
2	East Coast Surf SC	0.00 (+0.00)	3rd (1.46)	Already ahead

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 3rd hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Dec 12 TBD	SUSA FC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.24	Upside
Sun Dec 13 TBD	AC Connecticut 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.24	Upside
Sun Dec 20 03:00 PM	SUSA FC ACADEMY	Home East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.35	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 02:00 PM	AC Connecticut 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.41	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 02:00 PM	SUSA FC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.44	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM	Scorpions SC	Home East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.47	Swing game
Sun Apr 4 02:00 PM	FC Stars	Home East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.48	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 03:00 PM	East Coast Surf SC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home Point Lookout - Lido Blvd	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.49	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Manhattan SC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.47	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	East Coast Surf SC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.44	Upside
Sun May 2 02:00 PM	Manhattan SC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.46	Swing game
Sun May 16 03:00 PM	Select	Home Point Lookout - Lido Blvd	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.47	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

AC Connecticut

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sun Dec 13 vs East Meadow Soccer Club · Sun Dec 20 vs Manhattan SC · Sat Feb 27 vs Connecticut FC United See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Connecticut FC United (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FSA FC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Stars (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	vs	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Scorpions SC (—)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Coast Surf SC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Manhattan SC · Sun Dec 13 vs SUSA FC ACADEMY · Sat Mar 6 at Manhattan SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FSA FC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Connecticut FC United (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	vs	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Meadow Soccer Club

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at SUSA FC · Sun Dec 13 at AC Connecticut · Sun Dec 20 vs SUSA FC ACADEMY See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Scorpions SC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Stars (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Select (—)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manhattan SC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 at East Coast Surf SC · Sun Dec 13 vs Select · Sun Dec 20 at AC Connecticut See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Select (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Dec 20	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Connecticut FC United (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FSA FC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	at	SUSA FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oakwood Soccer Club

0.00

—

SUSA FC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 12 vs East Meadow Soccer Club · Sun Mar 7 vs AC Connecticut · Sat Mar 13 at East Meadow Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	East Meadow Soccer Club (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	SUSA FC ACADEMY (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Stars (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Scorpions SC (—)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	AC Connecticut (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Manhattan SC (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	at	East Coast Surf SC (2nd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.