Arsenal Colorado
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU18/19 · 8 teams · Arsenal Colorado (all teams)
Next game — Sat Feb 20, 02:00 PM
Pride Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | Arsenal Colorado | Pride SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Pride SC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Pride Soccer Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Pride SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arsenal Colorado – Pride SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Feb 15 – Sun Feb 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 5th▼ down 4 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 5th▼ down 4 | 5th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 7 | 8th▼ down 7 | 8th▼ down 7 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 12%
- 2nd 12%
- 3rd 13%
- 4th 12%
- 5th 14%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 13%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 1st hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Feb 20 02:00 PM |
Pride SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Pride Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Colorado Rush 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM |
Colorado Storm South 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 09:00 AM |
Real Colorado North National 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Dry Creek Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.33 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 12:30 PM |
Colorado Storm North 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.38 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 27 11:00 AM |
Colorado EDGE 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
Real Colorado Athletico 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Highland Heritage Regional Park · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
Real Colorado North National 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Neighbors Point Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 12:00 PM |
Pride SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Fort Collins Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Colorado Rush 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 04:00 PM |
Colorado Storm South 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Gates South Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
Colorado Storm North 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Stargate Charter School |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 01:00 PM |
Colorado EDGE 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Long Lake Regional Park · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.40 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal Colorado | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 20 at Pride SC · Sat Feb 27 at Colorado Rush · Sat Mar 6 vs Colorado Storm South See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Colorado EDGE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Jan 31 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 6 vs Real Colorado North National · Sun Feb 7 vs Colorado Storm North See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Colorado Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Jan 31 at Colorado EDGE · Sat Feb 20 at Real Colorado North National · Sat Feb 27 vs Arsenal Colorado See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Colorado Storm North | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 6 vs Pride SC · Sun Feb 7 at Colorado EDGE · Sat Feb 27 at Real Colorado North National See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Colorado Storm South | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 20 at Real Colorado Athletico · Sat Feb 27 at Pride SC · Sun Feb 28 vs Colorado Rush See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Pride SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 6 at Colorado Storm North · Sat Feb 20 vs Arsenal Colorado · Sat Feb 27 vs Colorado Storm South See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Real Colorado Athletico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Storm South · Sat Feb 27 vs Colorado EDGE · Sat Mar 6 at Real Colorado North National See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Real Colorado North National | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 6 at Colorado EDGE · Sat Feb 20 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 27 vs Colorado Storm North See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.