Utah Athletic

ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU13 · 10 teams · Utah Athletic Academy (all teams)

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1st

9-2-1 record · 12 played

2.42 points per game

+32 goal diff · 42–10

WWDWLlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.1

-0.45 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM

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Utah Athletic
1st · 2.42 PPG

La Roca FC
2nd · 2.09 PPG

Murray Park Rugby & Soccer Fields, West Field ↗

68% 17% 15%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.2 against · 2.22 expected points)

Season so far	Utah Athletic	La Roca FC
Position	1st	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	9-2-1	7-2-2
Points per game	2.42	2.09
Goals for / game	3.5	2.2
Goals against / game	0.8	1.3
Clean sheets	7	6
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	L W D W W	W L W D W
Biggest win	10–0 vs El Paso Locomotive B13/14	7–0 vs Arizona Arsenal
Worst loss	1–2 at CCV STARS	0–5 at Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.97	+0.64
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.45	-0.13

Already played this season: Sat Aug 22 2–0 at La Roca FC (W)

Common opponents: Arizona Soccer Club — we 1–1, 3–0; they 1–0, 1–0. Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL — we 5–3, 1–1; they 4–3, 0–5. Utah Avalanche — we 2–0; they 4–0. NUU Avalanche — we 4–3; they 3–2. Arizona Arsenal — we 4–0, 5–0; they 7–0, 2–0. CCV STARS — we 4–0, 1–2; they 0–0, 2–2.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 17% / loss 15%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Athletic – La Roca FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.46 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.46 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.31 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.23 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

91% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.1 average finish

1st 91%
2nd 8%
3rd 1%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

124 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Utah Athletic to La Roca FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

60 favour us

10 even

54 favour them

+0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 4th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM	La Roca FC 2nd · 7-2-2 · GD +10	Home Murray Park Rugby & Soccer Fields	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–1	2.22	2.40	Swing game
Sat Dec 12 09:00 AM	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 10th · 0-0-2 · GD -11	Away far trip Socorro Athletic Complex (SAC)	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	4–0	2.88	2.44	Bank it
Sun Dec 13 09:00 AM	NM Rapids SC 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away far trip Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–1	2.34	2.43	Bank it
Sun Feb 21 TBD	NM Rapids SC 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–1	2.53	2.44	Bank it
Sat Mar 13 03:30 PM	Utah Avalanche 4th · 5-0-5 · GD -1	Away far trip St. Joseph Catholic High School · turf	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–0	2.29	2.43	Bank it
Sat May 1 09:00 AM	NUU Avalanche 6th · 4-1-6 · GD +2	Away far trip Hansen Family Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–1	2.29	2.42	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Utah Athletic

+32

2.42

WWDWL

-0.45

-0.18

100%

1.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	CCV STARS (7th)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	5–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	10–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	CCV STARS (7th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	4–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Utah Avalanche (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	5–3
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	La Roca FC (2nd)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs La Roca FC · Sat Dec 12 at El Paso Locomotive B13/14 · Sun Dec 13 at NM Rapids SC See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	La Roca FC (2nd)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Utah Avalanche (4th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat May 1	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	2–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC

+10

2.09

WDWLW

-0.13

-0.23

98%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	0–5
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	CCV STARS (7th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Utah Avalanche (4th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	3–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	7–0
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	CCV STARS (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Utah Athletic (1st)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC · Sun Dec 6 vs El Paso Locomotive B13/14 See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Utah Athletic (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Utah Avalanche (4th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL

+14

2.00

WWDWW

+0.21

-0.93

100%

2.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Utah Avalanche (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	La Roca FC (2nd)	5–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Utah Athletic (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	CCV STARS (7th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Utah Avalanche (4th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	La Roca FC (2nd)	3–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Utah Athletic (1st)	3–5
W	Sat Aug 29	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 at Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at El Paso Locomotive B13/14 See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	CCV STARS (7th)	2–1	70%
·	Thu Mar 11	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Avalanche

-1

1.50

LWWWL

-0.07

-0.26

27%

5.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	CCV STARS (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	La Roca FC (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Utah Athletic (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	CCV STARS (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	3–0

Next: Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B13/14 · Sun Dec 6 vs NM Rapids SC · Sat Feb 6 at El Paso Locomotive B13/14 See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Utah Athletic (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	La Roca FC (2nd)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arizona Soccer Club

1.27

LLDLL

+0.30

-0.82

41%

4.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	La Roca FC (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Utah Avalanche (4th)	1–2
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Utah Athletic (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	CCV STARS (7th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	La Roca FC (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Utah Avalanche (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	3–2
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Utah Athletic (1st)	1–1

Next: Sat Mar 13 vs CCV STARS · Sun Mar 14 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	CCV STARS (7th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	1–1	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NUU Avalanche

1.18

WLDWW

-0.32

+0.10

6.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	CCV STARS (7th)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	CCV STARS (7th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Utah Athletic (1st)	3–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	La Roca FC (2nd)	2–3
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	2–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Dec 12 at NM Rapids SC · Sun Dec 13 at El Paso Locomotive B13/14 · Sat Feb 20 vs NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 12	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Utah Avalanche (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Utah Avalanche (4th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	La Roca FC (2nd)	1–1	33%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Utah Athletic (1st)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CCV STARS

-12

0.80

LDLLW

+0.70

-0.91

7.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Utah Athletic (1st)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Utah Avalanche (4th)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	La Roca FC (2nd)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Utah Athletic (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Utah Avalanche (4th)	1–3
D	Sat Aug 29	at	La Roca FC (2nd)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sun Oct 25 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sat Mar 13 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	2–0	67%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	1–1	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arizona Arsenal

-37

0.30

LLLLL

+0.70

-0.45

9.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Utah Athletic (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	La Roca FC (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Utah Avalanche (4th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 20	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Utah Athletic (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 30	at	La Roca FC (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Utah Avalanche (4th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	CCV STARS (7th)	0–2	9%
·	Thu Mar 11	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	CCV STARS (7th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NM Rapids SC

0.00

—

-0.10

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 at La Roca FC · Sun Dec 6 at Utah Avalanche · Sat Dec 12 vs NUU Avalanche See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	at	La Roca FC (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Utah Avalanche (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Utah Athletic (1st)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	La Roca FC (2nd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Utah Avalanche (4th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Utah Avalanche (4th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Utah Athletic (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	CCV STARS (7th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	El Paso Locomotive B13/14 (10th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	CCV STARS (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	3–0	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

El Paso Locomotive B13/14

-11

0.00

+1.06

-0.02

9.2

L	Sun Sep 27	at	Utah Athletic (1st)	0–10
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	0–1

Next: Sat Dec 5 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Dec 6 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Utah Athletic See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Utah Avalanche (4th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	La Roca FC (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Utah Athletic (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Utah Avalanche (4th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	La Roca FC (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Utah Avalanche (4th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	CCV STARS (7th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Arizona Soccer Club (5th)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	CCV STARS (7th)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.