St Croix
ECNL Regional League Boys · Midwest BU17 · 8 teams · St. Croix (all teams)
Next game — Sat Jan 23, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | St Croix | FC Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Wisconsin average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Rockford Raptors FC sit 7th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Rockford Raptors FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Wisconsin game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St Croix – FC Wisconsin) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Jan 18 – Sun Jan 24); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 6 | 4th▲ up 4 | 4th▲ up 4 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 7 | 1st▲ up 7 | 3rd▲ up 5 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 6 | 4th▲ up 4 | 4th▲ up 4 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 14%
- 2nd 13%
- 3rd 13%
- 4th 12%
- 5th 12%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 13%
- 8th 12%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Inter | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 4 | FC Wisconsin | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Indiana Elite FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 6 | MN Thunder Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 7 | Rockford Raptors FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 8th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 23 TBD |
FC Wisconsin 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 24 TBD |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Chicago Inter 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Indiana Elite FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Rockford Raptors FC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Chicago Inter 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.53 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Indiana Elite FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
Rockford Raptors FC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Mercyhealth Sportscore Two |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
MN Thunder Academy 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Chicago Magic Soccer Club 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
FC Wisconsin 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 03:00 PM |
MN Thunder Academy 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Academy of Holy Angels · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Inter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 at St Croix · Sun Mar 7 at MN Thunder Academy · Sat Mar 13 at FC Wisconsin See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Chicago Magic Soccer Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at MN Thunder Academy · Sun Jan 24 at St Croix · Sat Mar 6 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club · Sun Mar 7 vs FC Wisconsin · Sat Mar 13 at MN Thunder Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Wisconsin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at St Croix · Sun Jan 24 at MN Thunder Academy · Sat Mar 6 at Rockford Raptors FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Indiana Elite FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 at MN Thunder Academy · Sun Mar 7 at St Croix · Sat Mar 13 at Chicago Magic Soccer Club See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | MN Thunder Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club · Sun Jan 24 vs FC Wisconsin · Sat Mar 6 vs Indiana Elite FC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Rockford Raptors FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Mar 7 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 at St Croix See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | St Croix | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Jan 24 vs Chicago Magic Soccer Club · Sat Mar 6 vs Chicago Inter See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.