VSA Rush
ECNL Regional League Boys · Heartland BU18/19 · 6 teams · VSA Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 05:00 PM
VSA Timberline Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.7 against · 1.26 expected points)
| Season so far | VSA Rush | Sporting Iowa Central |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-6 | 4-0-4 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L W L | L L W W W |
| Biggest win | 5–1 vs Sporting Iowa Strikers | 2–0 vs Sporting Iowa Strikers |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs FC United Iowa | 1–3 vs Sporting Nebraska FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.53 | -0.12 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.02 | -0.07 |
Already played this season: Fri Aug 28 2–3 at Sporting Iowa Central (L)
Common opponents: Sporting Nebraska FC — we 0–1, 0–2; they 1–3, 2–4. Gretna Elite Academy — we 1–2, 1–0; they 2–3, 0–1. Sporting Iowa Strikers — we 0–2, 5–1; they 3–2, 2–0. FC United Iowa — we 1–5; they 1–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 vs Sporting Nebraska FC, 0–2 at Sporting Iowa Strikers, 0–2 at Sporting Nebraska FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 34%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Iowa Central game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VSA Rush – Sporting Iowa Central) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.78 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 0.78 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 2%
- 5th 98%
- 6th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.20 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC United Iowa | 2.50 (+1.75) | 1st (2.38) | 19 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Sporting Nebraska FC | 2.29 (+1.54) | 2nd (2.12) | 17 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Gretna Elite Academy | 1.86 (+1.11) | 3rd (1.77) | 13 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Sporting Iowa Central | 1.50 (+0.75) | 4th (1.39) | 9 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
54 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link VSA Rush to Sporting Iowa Central through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.85 · 1st hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 05:00 PM |
Sporting Iowa Central 4th · 4-0-4 · GD -1 |
Home VSA Timberline Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.26 | 0.81 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
FC United Iowa 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +19 |
Away far trip
Tuma Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.29 | 0.76 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC United Iowa | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 15 | 2.50 | WWLWW | -0.56 | +0.09 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sporting Nebraska FC · Sun Nov 1 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Iowa Central See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Sporting Nebraska FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 16 | 2.29 | WLWWD | -0.15 | +0.05 | 100% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC United Iowa · Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Iowa Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Gretna Elite Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Gretna Elite Academy | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 13 | 1.86 | LWLWD | -0.08 | +0.20 | 100% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting Iowa Strikers · Sun Nov 1 vs FC United Iowa · Sat Nov 7 vs Sporting Nebraska FC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sporting Iowa Central | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 | 1.50 | WWWLL | -0.07 | +0.64 | 98% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at VSA Rush · Sat Nov 7 at FC United Iowa See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | VSA Rush | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 | 0.75 | LWLWL | -0.02 | +0.85 | 2% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Sporting Iowa Central · Sun Nov 8 at FC United Iowa See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sporting Iowa Strikers | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLLL | +0.40 | +0.50 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Gretna Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Sporting Nebraska FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.93 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.