Gretna Elite Academy

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Pinnacle Bank Soccer Complex ( Gretna Soccer Compl, Field 2 ↗

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.8 for, 1.5 against · 2.13 expected points)

Already played this season: Sun Sep 27 2–3 at Sporting Iowa Strikers (L)

Common opponents: Sporting Iowa Central — we 1–2, 0–1; they 0–10. VSA Rush — we 1–1, 0–4; they 2–2, 1–7. FC United Iowa — we 2–6; they 0–4, 0–3. Sporting Nebraska FC — we 1–1; they 0–4.

• They struggle to score
  Sporting Iowa Strikers average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 4 of 7.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Sporting Iowa Strikers concede 4.6/game; worst result 0–10 at Sporting Iowa Central.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs VSA Rush, 0–1 vs Sporting Iowa Central.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 66% / draw 16% / loss 18%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• What a win does
  Sporting Iowa Strikers sit 5th on 0.57 PPG; we are on 0.29.

  A point moves us above Sporting Iowa Strikers on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Sporting Iowa Strikers game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Gretna Elite Academy – Sporting Iowa Strikers) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th 7%
5. 5th 58%
6. 6th 35%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.10 PPG if we win out).