Union 10
ECNL Regional League Boys · Gulf Coast BU15 · 8 teams · Union 10 FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 8, 01:00 PM
Ashton Brosnaham, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.4 against · 1.68 expected points)
| Season so far | Union 10 | Coastal Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Points per game | 1.36 | 0.90 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L D | L W L D L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | 4–2 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs Gulf Coast United FC | 0–6 vs Gulf Coast United FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.49 | -1.13 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.44 | +0.33 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 1–1 vs Coastal Rush (D)
Common opponents: Louisiana Fire SC — we 2–1, 0–2; they 1–1. LA Krewe Rush — we 4–3, 0–0; they 0–6, 0–3. Gulf Coast United FC — we 2–2, 0–4; they 0–6, 1–5. Hattiesburg Futbol Club — we 2–1; they 1–0, 4–2. Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers — we 2–0; they 1–1. LA Elite SP — we 0–3, 1–5; they 0–1.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Coastal Rush concede 2.6/game; worst result 0–6 vs Gulf Coast United FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–0 at LA Krewe Rush, 0–3 at LA Elite SP, 0–4 vs Gulf Coast United FC, 0–2 at Louisiana Fire SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 49% / draw 22% / loss 29%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Ashton Brosnaham.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Coastal Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Union 10 – Coastal Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.33 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.33 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.25 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 88%
- 5th 10%
- 6th 1%
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.71 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA Elite SP | 2.50 (+1.14) | 3rd (2.05) | 20 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | LA Krewe Rush | 2.44 (+1.08) | 1st (2.29) | 20 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Gulf Coast United FC | 2.29 (+0.93) | 2nd (2.16) | 18 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
69 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Union 10 to Coastal Rush through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -1.00 · 8th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 02:00 PM no score posted |
Hattiesburg Futbol Club 7th · 1-2-4 · GD -10 |
Home Trione Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.89 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Coastal Rush 5th · 2-3-5 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
Ashton Brosnaham |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.68 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Pelican Park Purple Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.44 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | LA Elite SP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 10 | 2.50 | DWWW | -0.77 | +0.17 | 100% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 at Louisiana Fire SC · Sat Mar 6 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | LA Krewe Rush | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 6 | +21 | 22 | 2.44 | WDWWW | -0.45 | +0.27 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 6 at Gulf Coast United FC · Sun Mar 7 at Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Mar 20 at LA Elite SP See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Gulf Coast United FC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 16 | 2.29 | WDWLW | -0.35 | +0.06 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sat Mar 6 vs LA Krewe Rush · Sun Mar 7 vs LA Elite SP See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Union 10 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 15 | 1.36 | DLLLL | +0.44 | -1.00 | 90% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 at Coastal Rush · Sun Nov 15 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Coastal Rush | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 9 | 0.90 | LDLWL | +0.33 | -0.12 | 1% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Oct 10 at Louisiana Fire SC · Sun Oct 11 at Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Louisiana Fire SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | 0.71 | LLDLW | +0.22 | -0.09 | 9% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Oct 25 vs LA Elite SP · Sat Mar 13 vs Hattiesburg Futbol Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Hattiesburg Futbol Club | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 5 | 0.71 | LLLDL | -0.16 | +0.53 | 0% | 7.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Gulf Coast United FC · Sat Oct 10 at Union 10 · Sat Mar 6 vs LA Elite SP See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Mandeville Soccer Club Lakers | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLDL | +0.08 | +0.21 | 0% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Coastal Rush · Sun Nov 15 vs Union 10 · Sat Mar 13 vs LA Elite SP See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.