Los Gatos United Soccer Club
ECNL Regional League Boys · Golden State BU13 · 7 teams · Los Gatos United Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
Monta Vista High School, Lower Field ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.6 against · 1.70 expected points)
| Season so far | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | Marin FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-2 | 3-3-1 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 1.71 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W D | W D D L D |
| Biggest win | 7–0 vs San Francisco Elite Academy | 3–0 vs 1974 Newark FC |
| Worst loss | 2–4 at San Francisco Elite Academy | 2–3 at El Camino FC Salinas |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.67 | +0.33 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.36 | -0.20 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 1–1 at Marin FC (D)
Common opponents: San Francisco Elite Academy — we 2–4, 7–0; they 2–2. 1974 Newark FC — we 3–0; they 3–0. COSC — we 2–1; they 4–3, 3–2. El Camino FC Salinas — we 1–3; they 2–3.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 50% / draw 21% / loss 29%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Marin FC sit 3rd on 1.71 PPG; we are on 1.67.A point moves us above Marin FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Marin FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Los Gatos United Soccer Club – Marin FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.86 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.86 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.57 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.43 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 11%
- 3rd 47%
- 4th 37%
- 5th 4%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Camino FC Salinas | 2.57 (+0.90) | 1st (2.44) | 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 2 | MVLA | 2.29 (+0.62) | 2nd (2.14) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 3 | Marin FC | 1.71 (+0.04) | 4th (1.64) | A point next game |
How the results connect
33 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Los Gatos United Soccer Club to Marin FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.10 · 2nd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Marin FC 3rd · 3-3-1 · GD +4 |
Home Monta Vista High School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.70 | 1.67 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
El Camino FC Salinas 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.86 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 09:30 AM |
1974 Newark FC 7th · 0-1-6 · GD -19 |
Home Monta Vista High School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
3–0 | 2.67 | 1.69 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
COSC 6th · 1-0-6 · GD -12 |
Home Monta Vista High School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 1.77 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
Davis Legacy |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
MVLA 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
San Juan SC |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.75 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Placer United |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.77 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Mustang Soccer -RL |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
MVLA 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 0.99 | 1.73 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Camino FC Salinas | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWL | -0.06 | -0.28 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at 1974 Newark FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at COSC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | MVLA | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWW | -0.25 | -0.01 | 100% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at COSC · Sat Nov 7 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Marin FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Marin FC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 | 1.71 | DLDDW | -0.20 | +0.10 | 93% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sat Nov 14 at MVLA See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 10 | 1.67 | DWWWL | -0.36 | +0.10 | 96% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Marin FC · Sat Oct 31 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sat Nov 7 vs 1974 Newark FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 8 | 1.14 | LLLDW | +0.21 | -0.00 | 11% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Marin FC · Sat Nov 7 vs MVLA · Sat Nov 14 at El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | COSC | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 3 | 0.43 | LWLLL | +0.19 | +0.09 | 0% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MVLA · Sat Oct 31 at 1974 Newark FC · Sat Nov 7 vs El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | 1974 Newark FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 22 | -19 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLLL | +0.41 | +0.08 | 0% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs El Camino FC Salinas · Sat Oct 31 vs COSC · Sat Nov 7 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.