Michigan Burn
ECNL Regional League Boys · GMA BU14 · 12 teams · Michigan Burn (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
The Sports Academy, Turf Field ↗ · turf
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.1 for, 1.1 against · 2.69 expected points)
| Season so far | Michigan Burn | Legends FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per game | 1.80 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / game | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W L | D W L L L |
| Biggest win | 10–0 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA | 4–2 vs Portage SC Green |
| Worst loss | 0–1 at Portage SC Green | 2–6 vs TKO Premier SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.96 | -0.65 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.58 | +0.49 |
Common opponents: Portage SC Green — we 0–1; they 4–2. Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 12/13 GMA — we 2–1; they 1–4. TKO Premier SC — we 0–1; they 2–6.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Portage SC Green, 0–1 at TKO Premier SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
Portage SC Green sit 5th on 1.88 PPG; we are on 1.80.A point moves us above Portage SC Green on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Legends FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Burn – Legends FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 15%
- 3rd 20%
- 4th 22%
- 5th 22%
- 6th 15%
- 7th 5%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.45 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TKO Premier SC | 2.57 (+0.77) | 1st (2.57) | 20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Detroit City FC West | 2.57 (+0.77) | 2nd (2.38) | 20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 3 | Michigan Rangers FC | 2.40 (+0.60) | 3rd (2.10) | 18 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 4 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 2.00 (+0.20) | 6th (1.78) | Win next game |
| 5 | Portage SC Green | 1.88 (+0.08) | 4th (2.02) | A point next game |
How the results connect
17 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Michigan Burn to Legends FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
16 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.20 · 6th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Legends FC 8th · 1-2-3 · GD -7 |
Home The Sports Academy · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
4–1 | 2.69 | 1.95 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM |
Cap City Athletic 1847 4th · 4-0-2 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
East Lansing Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.60 | 1.90 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Plymouth Reign 10th · 1-2-4 · GD -13 |
Home Anchor Bay High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
5–1 | 2.82 | 2.01 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 09:30 AM |
Detroit City FC West 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +18 |
Home Anchor Bay High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 1.97 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
Michigan Rangers FC 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +15 |
Home L'Anse Creuse High School North |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.70 | 1.94 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor 9th · 1-2-3 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Mitchell Field |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–0 | 2.75 | 2.01 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | TKO Premier SC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 4 | +26 | 18 | 2.57 | LWWWW | +0.08 | -0.54 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Rangers FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Detroit City FC West | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 18 | 2.57 | WWLWW | +0.02 | -0.41 | 96% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Michigan Burn · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Michigan Rangers FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 4 | +15 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -0.63 | +0.31 | 69% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sun Oct 25 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-Union GMA See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Cap City Athletic 1847 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 12 | 2.00 | WLLWW | -1.02 | +1.03 | 17% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Rangers FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Michigan Burn · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 12/13 GMA See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Portage SC Green | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 15 | 1.88 | WWLWL | +0.41 | -1.28 | 53% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC-CA GMA · Sat Oct 31 vs Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor · Sun Nov 1 vs Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 12/13 GMA See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Michigan Burn | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 3 | +17 | 9 | 1.80 | LWWWL | -0.58 | +0.20 | 58% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC · Sun Oct 25 at Cap City Athletic 1847 · Sat Oct 31 vs Plymouth Reign See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 12/13 GMA | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 9 | 1.80 | WWWLL | -0.76 | +0.63 | 7% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor · Sun Oct 25 vs Plymouth Reign · Sat Oct 31 at Cap City Athletic 1847 See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Legends FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 5 | 0.83 | LLLWD | +0.49 | -0.39 | 0% | 8.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Burn · Sun Oct 25 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Nov 1 at Nationals SC-CA GMA See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Liverpool FC IA MI Ann Arbor | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 5 | 0.83 | LDLDW | -0.18 | +0.48 | 0% | 9.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 12/13 GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Portage SC Green · Sun Nov 1 at TKO Premier SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Plymouth Reign | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 5 | 0.71 | LWLDD | +0.17 | -0.01 | 0% | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nationals SC-Union GMA · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC-IA Michigan NO B 12/13 GMA · Sat Oct 31 at Michigan Burn See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Nationals SC-Union GMA | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 42 | -40 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLLL | +0.82 | +0.00 | 0% | 11.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Plymouth Reign · Sun Oct 25 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Detroit City FC West See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Nationals SC-CA GMA | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 38 | -36 | 1 | 0.13 | LLLLL | +0.13 | +0.99 | 0% | 11.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Portage SC Green · Sat Oct 31 at TKO Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Legends FC See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.