WNY Flash
ECNL Regional League Boys · GLA BU15 · 9 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 09:00 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | WNY Flash | Rochester NY FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Rochester NY FC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Upper 90 FC sit 7th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Upper 90 FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Rochester NY FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash – Rochester NY FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 6 | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 7 | 1st▲ up 7 | 7th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 6 | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 11%
- 2nd 11%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 11%
- 5th 11%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 11%
- 8th 11%
- 9th 11%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Force SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Croatia Juniors | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 4 | Rochester NY FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Steel City FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 6 | T3FC East | 0.00 (+0.00) | 8th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 7 | Upper 90 FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 9th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 09:00 AM |
Rochester NY FC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
Croatia Juniors 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
WNY Flash Rochester 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
T3FC East 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM |
Cleveland Force SC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Victory Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
WNY Flash Rochester 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 12:00 PM |
Upper 90 FC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Gameday Sports |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Croatia Juniors 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Rochester NY FC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Steel City FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.36 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 11:15 AM |
Steel City FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.37 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 09:00 AM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 09:00 AM |
T3FC East 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.40 | Swing game |
| Sun May 23 09:00 AM |
Upper 90 FC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Force SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Steel City FC · Sun Dec 6 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 6 vs Rochester NY FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Croatia Juniors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at WNY Flash Rochester · Sun Nov 15 at WNY Flash · Sat Dec 5 vs T3FC East See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at Upper 90 FC · Sun Dec 6 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sat Mar 6 at Steel City FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Rochester NY FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at WNY Flash · Sun Nov 15 at WNY Flash Rochester · Sat Dec 5 at Upper 90 FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Steel City FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at T3FC East · Sun Nov 15 at Upper 90 FC · Sat Dec 5 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | T3FC East | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Steel City FC · Sat Dec 5 at Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 at Upper 90 FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Upper 90 FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Nov 15 vs Steel City FC · Sat Dec 5 vs Rochester NY FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | WNY Flash | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Rochester NY FC · Sun Nov 15 vs Croatia Juniors · Sat Mar 6 vs WNY Flash Rochester See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | WNY Flash Rochester | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Croatia Juniors · Sun Nov 15 vs Rochester NY FC · Sat Mar 6 at WNY Flash See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.