FC Tulsa Academy

ECNL Regional League Boys · Frontier BU16 · 10 teams · FC Tulsa Academy (all teams)

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1st

9-0-0 record · 9 played

3.00 points per game

+34 goal diff · 36–2

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

-0.63 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM

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FC Tulsa Academy
1st · 3.00 PPG

West Side Alliance
7th · 0.90 PPG

RiverCity Parks, Field 9 ↗

94%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.0 for, 0.5 against · 2.86 expected points)

Season so far	FC Tulsa Academy	West Side Alliance
Position	1st	7th
Record (W-D-L)	9-0-0	3-0-7
Points per game	3.00	0.90
Goals for / game	4.0	1.0
Goals against / game	0.2	2.2
Clean sheets	8	2
Held scoreless	0	4
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	W W L L L
Biggest win	6–0 at Broken Arrow Soccer Club	3–0 at Oklahoma Cosmos
Worst loss	—	1–8 vs Oklahoma Celtic
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.56	-0.89
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.63	-0.07

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 4–0 vs West Side Alliance (W)

Common opponents: Arkansas Comets FC — we 4–0; they 0–1. Arkansas Rising — we 1–0; they 0–2. Tulsa SC — we 4–0; they 0–1. Kernow Storm FC — we 3–2; they 1–2. Broken Arrow Soccer Club — we 6–0; they 2–3. Oklahoma Cosmos — we 3–0, 6–0; they 2–1, 3–0.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 94% chance; likely score 4–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at RiverCity Parks.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the West Side Alliance game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Tulsa Academy – West Side Alliance) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.80 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.70 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

100% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 100%
2nd <1%
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

68 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link FC Tulsa Academy to West Side Alliance through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

61 favour us

3 even

4 favour them

+4.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 5th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM	West Side Alliance 7th · 3-0-7 · GD -12	Away RiverCity Parks	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	4–0	2.86	2.99	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 03:00 PM	Broken Arrow Soccer Club 9th · 1-1-7 · GD -26	Home Scheels Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	6–0	2.98	2.99	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM	Oklahoma Celtic 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +7	Home Scheels Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–0	2.61	2.95	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM	OK Energy FC Frontier 4th · 4-2-2 · GD +3	Away far trip Edmond Soccer Club	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	2–0	2.43	2.91	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 03:00 PM	Tulsa SC 2nd · 6-3-1 · GD +14	Home Scheels Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–0	2.30	2.87	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 TBD	Arkansas Comets FC 6th · 5-1-5 · GD +3	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	2–0	2.52	2.85	Bank it
Sat Dec 12 03:00 PM	Kernow Storm FC 8th · 2-1-5 · GD -6	Home Scheels Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	3–0	2.86	2.85	Bank it
Sun Dec 13 02:00 PM	Oklahoma Celtic 5th · 4-1-3 · GD +7	Away far trip Oklahoma Celtic	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.44	2.82	Bank it
Sat Dec 19 01:00 PM	Arkansas Rising 3rd · 6-2-2 · GD +9	Away far trip Burns Park	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	1–0	2.02	2.78	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Tulsa Academy

+34

3.00

WWWWW

-0.63

-0.01

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	6–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Tulsa SC (2nd)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	West Side Alliance (7th)	4–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance · Sun Nov 1 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	West Side Alliance (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	6–0	99%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tulsa SC (2nd)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–0	94%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–0	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tulsa SC

+14

2.10

WWDWW

-0.00

-0.20

99%

2.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	3–2
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	West Side Alliance (7th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–4
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	1–1
D	Sat Aug 29	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	9–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sun Oct 25 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	3–0	93%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	West Side Alliance (7th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–0	39%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	3–0	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Rising

2.00

WWDWW

-0.08

-0.11

92%

3.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	West Side Alliance (7th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	West Side Alliance (7th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	1–0	66%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	1–0	41%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	2–0	87%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	2–0	81%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–1	29%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–1	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Frontier

1.75

DWLLW

+0.07

-0.08

44%

4.6

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	5–0
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 at West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 3 vs Oklahoma Celtic · Sun Oct 25 at Tulsa SC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	West Side Alliance (7th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–1	20%
·	Wed Oct 28	at	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–1	26%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	West Side Alliance (7th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	1–0	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Celtic

1.63

WLLWL

-0.16

+0.01

54%

4.4

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	West Side Alliance (7th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	West Side Alliance (7th)	8–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	3–1
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Tulsa SC (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 at OK Energy FC Frontier · Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Wed Oct 28	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	3–0	91%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	2–0	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Comets FC

1.45

WWDLL

-0.10

+0.03

11%

5.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Tulsa SC (2nd)	2–3
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	West Side Alliance (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	West Side Alliance (7th)	2–0	66%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	1–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Side Alliance

-12

0.90

LLLWW

-0.07

+0.31

7.8

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	2–1

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–2	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC

-6

0.88

LWWLL

+0.05

+0.07

7.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Tulsa SC (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	West Side Alliance (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	2–3
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Rising See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 18 (no score yet)	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	2–0	67%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–1	11%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	West Side Alliance (7th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	0–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Broken Arrow Soccer Club

-26

0.44

LLLDL

+0.46

-0.03

9.0

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–6
L	Sun Aug 30	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	West Side Alliance (7th)	3–2
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–9

Next: Sun Oct 18 at Kernow Storm FC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Tulsa Academy · Sat Nov 7 at West Side Alliance See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 18 (no score yet)	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	West Side Alliance (7th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (10th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Cosmos

-26

0.11

LLLLL

+0.61

-0.12

9.8

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	West Side Alliance (7th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Tulsa Academy (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–1
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 22	at	West Side Alliance (7th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tulsa SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Nov 21 at Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Tulsa SC (2nd)	0–3	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Kernow Storm FC (8th)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–2	3%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Arkansas Comets FC (6th)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (4th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (9th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (5th)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.