Broken Arrow Soccer Club

ECNL Regional League Boys · Frontier BU15 · 10 teams · Broken Arrow Soccer Club (all teams)

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2nd

9-0-1 record · 10 played

2.70 points per game

+42 goal diff · 50–8

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.5

-1.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:00 PM

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Broken Arrow Soccer Club
2nd · 2.70 PPG

FC Tulsa Academy
6th · 1.44 PPG

Scheels Sports Complex, Field 6 (11v11) ↗

76% 14% 10%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.8 for, 0.9 against · 2.42 expected points)

Season so far	Broken Arrow Soccer Club	FC Tulsa Academy
Position	2nd	6th
Record (W-D-L)	9-0-1	4-1-4
Points per game	2.70	1.44
Goals for / game	5.0	1.3
Goals against / game	0.8	1.3
Clean sheets	5	2
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L L W L W
Biggest win	12–0 vs Kernow Storm FC	3–0 vs Arkansas Comets FC
Worst loss	3–4 at OK Energy FC Frontier	0–3 vs OK Energy FC Frontier
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.79	+0.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.03	+0.15

Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 1–0 vs FC Tulsa Academy (W)

Common opponents: Tulsa SC — we 3–1; they 1–1. West Side Alliance — we 4–1; they 3–2. OK Energy FC Frontier — we 3–4; they 0–3. Arkansas Comets FC — we 5–0, 11–1; they 3–0. Kernow Storm FC — we 12–0, 3–0; they 3–1. Arkansas Rising — we 2–1; they 0–2.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 76% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Scheels Sports Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Tulsa Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Broken Arrow Soccer Club – FC Tulsa Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.73 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.73 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.55 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.45 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

55% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.5 average finish

1st 55%
2nd 43%
3rd 1%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.83 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	OK Energy FC Frontier	2.80 (+0.10)	2nd (2.56)	24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection

How the results connect

75 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Broken Arrow Soccer Club to FC Tulsa Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

60 favour us

8 even

7 favour them

+3.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.41 · 1st hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM	FC Tulsa Academy 6th · 4-1-4 · GD +0	Away Scheels Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	2–0	2.42	2.67	Bank it
Thu Nov 5 08:00 PM	West Side Alliance 4th · 6-1-3 · GD +16	Away RiverCity Parks	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.08	2.63	Swing game
Sun Dec 6 10:00 AM	Oklahoma Celtic 7th · 2-2-5 · GD -11	Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	94%	4–0	2.87	2.64	Bank it
Sat Dec 12 11:00 AM	Arkansas Rising 3rd · 7-0-3 · GD +18	Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	3–1	2.27	2.62	Bank it
Sat Jan 23 01:00 PM	Oklahoma Cosmos 5th · 5-0-3 · GD +2	Away far trip South Lakes Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	3–1	2.46	2.61	Bank it
Sat Jan 30 01:00 PM	OK Energy FC Frontier 1st · 9-1-0 · GD +30	Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–1	1.76	2.55	Swing game
Sun Jan 31 11:00 AM	Oklahoma Cosmos 5th · 5-0-3 · GD +2	Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	3–1	2.64	2.56	Bank it
Sat Feb 6 11:00 AM	Tulsa SC 8th · 2-2-6 · GD -8	Home Indian Springs Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	3–0	2.76	2.57	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

OK Energy FC Frontier

+30

2.80

DWWWW

-0.56

+0.07

100%

1.6

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	8–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	6–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	West Side Alliance (4th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	4–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Tulsa SC (8th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Tulsa SC · Wed Oct 28 at Oklahoma Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Rising See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Tulsa SC (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Wed Oct 28	at	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	West Side Alliance (4th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	7–0	99%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Broken Arrow Soccer Club

+42

2.70

WWWWW

-1.03

+0.41

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	11–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	12–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	3–4
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	6–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	West Side Alliance (4th)	4–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Tulsa SC (8th)	3–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Tulsa Academy · Thu Nov 5 at West Side Alliance · Sun Dec 6 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	2–0	76%
·	Thu Nov 5	at	West Side Alliance (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	3–1	85%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Tulsa SC (8th)	3–0	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Rising

+18

2.10

WLWLW

-0.42

+0.18

95%

3.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	7–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Tulsa SC (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	5–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	West Side Alliance (4th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sat Oct 31 at OK Energy FC Frontier See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	West Side Alliance (4th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	2–1	73%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Tulsa SC (8th)	2–0	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Side Alliance

+16

1.90

WDWWW

-0.26

-0.04

83%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	8–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Tulsa SC (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	2–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	6–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Oklahoma Cosmos · Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Rising · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Comets FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	5–1	93%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Thu Nov 5	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	5–0	96%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Tulsa SC (8th)	2–0	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Cosmos

1.88

LWWLW

-0.25

+0.18

18%

5.1

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Tulsa SC (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	West Side Alliance (4th)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 24 at Tulsa SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	West Side Alliance (4th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Tulsa SC (8th)	1–0	48%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	1–3	6%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Tulsa Academy

1.44

WLWLL

+0.15

-0.11

5.7

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Tulsa SC (8th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	West Side Alliance (4th)	3–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at West Side Alliance · Sun Nov 1 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Oklahoma Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	West Side Alliance (4th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Tulsa SC (8th)	1–0	50%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	1–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Celtic

-11

0.89

LWLLL

+0.19

+0.04

7.4

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	West Side Alliance (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	West Side Alliance (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Tulsa SC (8th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	2–2
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Tulsa SC (8th)	0–0
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	0–6
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	4–1

Next: Wed Oct 28 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Arkansas Rising See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Wed Oct 28	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	3–0	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tulsa SC

-8

0.80

LLLWW

-0.17

+0.17

7.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	West Side Alliance (4th)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	1–1
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	0–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oklahoma Cosmos · Sun Oct 25 vs OK Energy FC Frontier · Sat Oct 31 vs Kernow Storm FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	0–1	25%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	2–0	64%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	West Side Alliance (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arkansas Comets FC

-45

0.09

LLLLL

+1.12

-0.97

9.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Tulsa SC (8th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	1–11
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	2–5
L	Sun Aug 30	at	West Side Alliance (4th)	0–6
L	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Kernow Storm FC · Sun Oct 25 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	West Side Alliance (4th)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Tulsa SC (8th)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Kernow Storm FC (10th)	2–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kernow Storm FC

-44

0.00

LLLLL

+1.05

-0.25

9.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Tulsa SC (8th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	0–8
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Broken Arrow Soccer Club (2nd)	0–12
L	Sat Oct 3	at	West Side Alliance (4th)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Arkansas Comets FC · Sun Oct 25 at Arkansas Rising · Sat Oct 31 at Tulsa SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Arkansas Rising (3rd)	0–6	0%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Tulsa SC (8th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Oklahoma Cosmos (5th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	West Side Alliance (4th)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Arkansas Comets FC (9th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	FC Tulsa Academy (6th)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	OK Energy FC Frontier (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Oklahoma Celtic (7th)	0–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.01 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.