Broken Arrow Soccer Club

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Scheels Sports Complex, Field 6 (11v11) ↗

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.7 for, 3.2 against · 0.26 expected points)

Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 1–1 vs FC Tulsa Academy (D)

Common opponents: Tulsa SC — we 1–0; they 5–0. OK Energy FC Frontier — we 0–3; they 4–1. Arkansas Comets FC — we 3–1, 0–1; they 5–0. Kernow Storm FC — we 6–0, 5–2; they 11–0. Arkansas Rising — we 0–2; they 4–0.

• Respect their attack
  FC Tulsa Academy score 4.2/game — well above the league's 2.2.

  Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

• Hard to break down
  FC Tulsa Academy concede only 0.4/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

  Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–5 at Oklahoma Celtic, 0–3 at OK Energy FC Frontier, 0–1 at Arkansas Comets FC, 0–2 at Arkansas Rising.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Underdog — play free, stay organised
  Model gives 5%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.

  Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

• They arrive in form
  FC Tulsa Academy have won 3 straight.

  Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

• Away game
  Kickoff 11:00 AM at Scheels Sports Complex.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Arkansas Rising sit 5th on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.40.

  A point moves us above Arkansas Rising on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the FC Tulsa Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Broken Arrow Soccer Club – FC Tulsa Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 0–3 loss we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th <1%
5. 5th 10%
6. 6th 23%
7. 7th 65%
8. 8th 2%
9. 9th <1%
10. 10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.11 PPG if we win out).