South Orlando SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU16 · 10 teams · South Orlando SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
Young Pine Community Park, Field 3 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.0 for, 2.1 against · 0.72 expected points)
| Season so far | South Orlando SC | Florida Premier FC Black |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-3 | 5-2-2 |
| Points per game | 1.14 | 1.89 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 5 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L D D | W W L W D |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Fishhawk Premier FC | 7–0 at Sporting SA TLH |
| Worst loss | 1–5 vs Florida Kraze Krush | 0–2 at Florida Premier FC Gold |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.52 | +0.70 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.24 | -0.27 |
Common opponents: Florida Celtic — we 3–4; they 2–2. Sporting SA TLH — we 0–0; they 7–0, 1–0. Sporting SA JAX — we 0–0; they 0–1, 1–0. FC America — we 1–3; they 1–0. Florida Kraze Krush — we 1–5; they 1–1. Space Coast United — we 4–3; they 3–0.
Game plan
-
Hard to break down
Florida Premier FC Black concede only 0.7/game with 5 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Sporting SA TLH, 0–0 at Sporting SA JAX.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 17%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
What a win does
Fishhawk Premier FC sit 6th on 1.22 PPG; we are on 1.14.A point moves us above Fishhawk Premier FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Florida Premier FC Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (South Orlando SC – Florida Premier FC Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Win 1.38 PPG |
6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.13 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 26%
- 8th 60%
- 9th 2%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.28 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 2.67 (+1.53) | 1st (2.41) | 41 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Florida Celtic | 2.22 (+1.08) | 2nd (2.07) | 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 3 | Florida Premier FC Black | 1.89 (+0.75) | 3rd (1.81) | 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 4 | FC America | 1.78 (+0.64) | 4th (1.78) | 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 5 | Florida Kraze Krush | 1.67 (+0.53) | 5th (1.64) | 23 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 6 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 1.22 (+0.08) | 6th (1.29) | A point next game |
How the results connect
61 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link South Orlando SC to Florida Premier FC Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.26 · 1st hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC Black 3rd · 5-2-2 · GD +10 |
Home Young Pine Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.72 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC Gold 1st · 8-0-1 · GD +20 |
Home Young Pine Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–2 | 0.36 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 12:00 PM |
Space Coast United 9th · 0-3-6 · GD -17 |
Away far trip
SCU - Viera Regional Park Soccer Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.85 | 1.09 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Florida Kraze Krush 5th · 4-3-2 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Central Winds |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.71 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 10:45 AM |
FC America 4th · 5-1-3 · GD +8 |
Away SoFive Soccer Center - Winter Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.57 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 03:00 PM |
Florida Celtic 2nd · 6-2-1 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Belcher Road Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.38 | 0.97 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 03:00 PM |
Fishhawk Premier FC 6th · 3-2-4 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.05 | 0.97 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC Gold 1st · 8-0-1 · GD +20 |
Away far trip
Wiregrass Ranch Sports Campus · grass |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.24 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
Florida Premier FC Black 3rd · 5-2-2 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
0–2 | 0.54 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 PM |
Sporting SA JAX 8th · 2-3-5 · GD -5 |
Home Young Pine Community Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.44 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 09:30 AM |
Sporting SA TLH 10th · 0-2-8 · GD -30 |
Home Young Pine Community Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
2–0 | 2.60 | 1.03 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 4 | +20 | 24 | 2.67 | WWWWW | -0.49 | +0.17 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Space Coast United · Sun Oct 25 at South Orlando SC · Sat Oct 31 at Florida Celtic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Florida Celtic | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 20 | 2.22 | WWWDL | -0.28 | +0.06 | 98% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sat Mar 6 at Sporting SA JAX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Florida Premier FC Black | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 17 | 1.89 | DWLWW | -0.27 | +0.13 | 80% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Orlando SC · Sun Oct 25 at Space Coast United · Sat Oct 31 at Fishhawk Premier FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | FC America | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 16 | 1.78 | LWWWD | -0.03 | -0.06 | 75% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Mar 6 vs Space Coast United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Florida Kraze Krush | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 15 | 1.67 | LWWLD | -0.00 | -0.03 | 43% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 21 at FC America · Sat Mar 6 vs South Orlando SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 11 | 1.22 | WWLDW | +0.08 | -0.03 | 3% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sat Mar 6 at Sporting SA TLH See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | South Orlando SC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 | 1.14 | DDLLW | -0.24 | +0.26 | 0% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Space Coast United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Sporting SA JAX | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 9 | 0.90 | DLLLL | +0.48 | -0.49 | 1% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Mar 6 vs Florida Celtic See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Space Coast United | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 24 | -17 | 3 | 0.33 | DDLLL | +0.13 | +0.16 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Black · Sun Feb 28 vs South Orlando SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Sporting SA TLH | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 31 | -30 | 2 | 0.20 | DLLLL | +0.48 | -0.04 | 0% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC America · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush · Sat Oct 31 at Sporting SA JAX See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.48 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.