Fishhawk Premier FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Florida BU14 · 10 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Fishhawk Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.1 for, 1.3 against · 2.79 expected points)
| Season so far | Fishhawk Premier FC | Florida Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-3-1 | 1-1-6 |
| Points per game | 1.88 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.9 | 4.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W L D D D | L D L L L |
| Biggest win | 8–1 at Florida Celtic | 2–1 at South Orlando SC |
| Worst loss | 2–5 at FC America | 0–8 at FC America |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.96 | -1.97 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.19 | +0.16 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 8–1 at Florida Celtic (W)
Common opponents: Sporting SA JAX — we 1–0; they 1–3. Sporting SA TLH — we 3–3; they 0–1. South Orlando SC — we 2–2; they 2–1. Space Coast United — we 2–2; they 2–3. FC America — we 2–5; they 0–8. Florida Kraze Krush — we 6–1; they 3–3.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Florida Celtic concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–8 at FC America.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 91% chance; likely score 5–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Florida Celtic game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Fishhawk Premier FC – Florida Celtic) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.78 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.67 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 3%
- 2nd 30%
- 3rd 36%
- 4th 25%
- 5th 5%
- 6th 1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC America | 2.63 (+0.75) | 1st (2.44) | 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 2 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 2.29 (+0.41) | 2nd (2.02) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
How the results connect
42 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Fishhawk Premier FC to Florida Celtic through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 7th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Florida Celtic 10th · 1-1-6 · GD -23 |
Home Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
5–1 | 2.79 | 1.98 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Florida Premier FC BLACK 4th · 4-1-2 · GD +8 |
Home Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.69 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC Gold 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +8 |
Home Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 03:00 PM |
Sporting SA TLH 7th · 2-1-5 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Florida State University Rec Sportsplex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.83 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 01:00 PM |
Sporting SA JAX 6th · 2-2-4 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Clay County Regional Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.87 | 1.90 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 03:00 PM |
Space Coast United 8th · 2-1-5 · GD -6 |
Home Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.31 | 1.93 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 01:00 PM |
South Orlando SC 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–1 | 2.12 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC BLACK 4th · 4-1-2 · GD +8 |
Away Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.36 | 1.91 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
Florida Kraze Krush 9th · 1-3-4 · GD -10 |
Home Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.51 | 1.94 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
FC America 1st · 7-0-1 · GD +19 |
Home Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–3 | 1.24 | 1.91 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC America | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 14 | +19 | 21 | 2.63 | WWWWW | -0.10 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Nov 1 at Florida Kraze Krush · Sun Feb 21 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Florida Premier FC Gold | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 16 | 2.29 | WDWWW | +0.18 | -0.25 | 97% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Space Coast United · Sun Oct 25 at South Orlando SC · Sat Oct 31 at Florida Celtic See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Fishhawk Premier FC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 15 | 1.88 | DDDLW | -0.19 | -0.02 | 94% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Celtic · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Florida Premier FC BLACK | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 12 | +8 | 13 | 1.86 | WLLWD | -0.13 | -0.00 | 85% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Sporting SA TLH · Sat Oct 24 at South Orlando SC · Sun Oct 25 at Space Coast United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | South Orlando SC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 10 | 1.67 | WLWDW | -0.13 | +0.11 | 18% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Space Coast United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Sporting SA JAX | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 8 | 1.00 | WLWLD | +0.17 | -0.07 | 3% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting SA TLH · Sat Feb 20 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Feb 28 at Sporting SA TLH See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sporting SA TLH | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 | 0.88 | WWDLL | +0.08 | +0.00 | 2% | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK · Sat Oct 24 vs FC America · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Kraze Krush See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Space Coast United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 | 0.88 | LWLDL | +0.01 | +0.13 | 1% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK · Sat Feb 27 at Florida Premier FC BLACK See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Florida Kraze Krush | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 6 | 0.75 | DLLDL | -0.10 | +0.28 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sporting SA TLH · Sun Nov 1 vs FC America · Sun Feb 21 at FC America See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Florida Celtic | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 4 | 0.50 | LLLDL | +0.16 | +0.28 | 0% | 9.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Fishhawk Premier FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC BLACK See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.12 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.