Eugene Metro FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Far West BU16 · 9 teams · Eugene Metro FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Jan 23, 11:00 AM
CFC Pioneer Sportspark, Ed Davison 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | Eugene Metro FC | Capital FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Capital FC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at CFC Pioneer Sportspark.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Eastside Timbers sit 3rd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Eastside Timbers on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Capital FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eugene Metro FC – Capital FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Jan 18 – Sun Jan 24); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 9th▼ down 5 | 9th▼ down 5 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 | 8th▼ down 4 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 9th▼ down 5 | 9th▼ down 5 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
9th▼ down 5 | 9th▼ down 5 | 9th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 10%
- 2nd 11%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 9%
- 5th 11%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 13%
- 9th 12%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise Timbers | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Capital FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.43) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Eastside Timbers | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 4th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 23 11:00 AM |
Capital FC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
United PDX 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 01:00 PM |
Portland City United 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Buckman Field Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 TBD |
FC Portland 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 14 12:00 PM |
Eastside Timbers 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 12:00 PM |
Oregon Premier FC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Bob Keefer |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 11:00 AM |
Boise Timbers 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Owyhee High School Turf Field · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
Idaho Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.37 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Portland City United 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
United PDX 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Idaho Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Boise Timbers 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM |
FC Portland 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Eastside Timbers 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 09:00 AM |
Oregon Premier FC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
TBA |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
Capital FC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise Timbers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Portland City United · Sun Jan 24 at Oregon Premier FC · Fri Feb 12 at Eastside Timbers See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Capital FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sun Jan 24 vs FC Portland · Sat Jan 30 at Portland City United See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eastside Timbers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Fri Jan 22 vs Idaho Rush · Sun Jan 24 at United PDX · Sun Jan 31 vs Capital FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Eugene Metro FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Capital FC · Sat Jan 30 vs United PDX · Sat Feb 6 at Portland City United See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Portland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at United PDX · Sun Jan 24 at Capital FC · Sat Jan 30 vs Oregon Premier FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Idaho Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Fri Jan 22 at Eastside Timbers · Sat Jan 23 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Jan 24 at Portland City United See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Oregon Premier FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs Idaho Rush · Sun Jan 24 vs Boise Timbers · Sat Jan 30 at FC Portland See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Portland City United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs Boise Timbers · Sun Jan 24 vs Idaho Rush · Sat Jan 30 vs Capital FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | United PDX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 vs FC Portland · Sun Jan 24 vs Eastside Timbers · Sat Jan 30 at Eugene Metro FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.