FC 1974 Libertyville
ECNL Regional League Boys · Chicago Metro BU15 · 7 teams · Greater Libertyville Soccer Association (all teams)
Next game — Sun Mar 7, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | FC 1974 Libertyville | Bloomingdale Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Bloomingdale Lightning average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Chicago Soccer Academy sit 3rd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Chicago Soccer Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Bloomingdale Lightning game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC 1974 Libertyville – Bloomingdale Lightning) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Mar 1 – Sun Mar 7); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 | 3rd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 2 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 3 | 7th▼ down 3 | 7th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 14%
- 2nd 14%
- 3rd 13%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 14%
- 6th 15%
- 7th 16%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bloomingdale Lightning | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Chicago City SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Chicago Soccer Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 4th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Bloomingdale Lightning 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Force 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Roadrunners SC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Northern Indiana Express 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Bloomingdale Lightning 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Chicago City SC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Force 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Chicago Soccer Academy 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.37 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Roadrunners SC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Chicago City SC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Chicago Soccer Academy 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Northern Indiana Express 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bloomingdale Lightning | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 vs Northern Indiana Express · Sun Mar 7 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Mar 13 vs Roadrunners SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Chicago City SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 vs Chicago Soccer Academy · Sun Mar 14 at Northern Indiana Express · Sat Mar 20 at Bloomingdale Lightning See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Chicago Soccer Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 at Chicago City SC · Sun Mar 14 vs Bloomingdale Lightning · Sat Apr 17 at Force See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC 1974 Libertyville | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 7 vs Bloomingdale Lightning · Sat Mar 13 at Force · Sun Mar 14 at Roadrunners SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Force | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 13 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Apr 3 vs Chicago City SC · Sun Apr 4 vs Northern Indiana Express See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Northern Indiana Express | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 at Bloomingdale Lightning · Sun Mar 14 vs Chicago City SC · Sat Mar 20 vs Roadrunners SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Roadrunners SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 13 at Bloomingdale Lightning · Sun Mar 14 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Mar 20 at Northern Indiana Express See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.