NCFC Youth Premier
ECNL Regional League Boys · Carolinas BU16 · 10 teams · NCFC Youth (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 12, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | NCFC Youth Premier | Charlotte SA White |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Charlotte SA White average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
NCFC Youth Elite sit 7th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above NCFC Youth Elite on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Charlotte SA White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NCFC Youth Premier – Charlotte SA White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 6 | 7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 7 | 1st▲ up 7 | 6th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 6 | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
10th▼ down 2 | 10th▼ down 2 | 10th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 11%
- 2nd 12%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 10%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 10%
- 9th 10%
- 10th 8%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Catawba Valley YSA | 0.00 (+0.00) | 8th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Charlotte SA Blue | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Charlotte SA White | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 4 | Highland FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Jacksonville Hammerheads FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.45) | Already ahead |
| 6 | NC Fusion | 0.00 (+0.00) | 9th (1.37) | Already ahead |
| 7 | NCFC Youth Elite | 0.00 (+0.00) | 10th (1.37) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 8th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
Charlotte SA White 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 13 TBD |
Charlotte SA Blue 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 02:00 PM |
Wilmington Hammerheads 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WRAL |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 7 TBD |
NCFC Youth Elite 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 02:00 PM |
Jacksonville Hammerheads FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WRAL |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 12:00 PM |
Villarreal Force Academy 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WRAL |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM |
NCFC Youth Elite 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WRAL |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 PM |
Catawba Valley YSA 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WRAL |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM |
Highland FC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WRAL |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
NC Fusion 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.51 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Charlotte SA White 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Charlotte SA Blue 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Villarreal Force Academy 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Jacksonville Hammerheads FC 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Catawba Valley YSA 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Highland FC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 12:00 PM |
Wilmington Hammerheads 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WRAL |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Sun May 23 12:00 PM |
NC Fusion 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WRAL |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.43 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Catawba Valley YSA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Jan 16 at Highland FC · Sun Jan 24 vs Jacksonville Hammerheads FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Charlotte SA Blue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Villarreal Force Academy · Sun Dec 13 at NCFC Youth Premier · Sat Jan 30 vs NC Fusion See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Charlotte SA White | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at NCFC Youth Premier · Sun Dec 13 at Villarreal Force Academy · Sat Jan 30 vs NCFC Youth Elite See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Highland FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 16 vs Catawba Valley YSA · Sat Jan 23 vs Jacksonville Hammerheads FC · Sun Jan 24 vs Wilmington Hammerheads See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Jacksonville Hammerheads FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Jan 23 at Highland FC · Sun Jan 24 at Catawba Valley YSA · Sat Feb 6 at Villarreal Force Academy See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | NC Fusion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Jan 30 at Charlotte SA Blue · Sun Jan 31 at Charlotte SA White See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | NCFC Youth Elite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at NC Fusion · Sat Jan 30 at Charlotte SA White · Sun Jan 31 at Charlotte SA Blue See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | NCFC Youth Premier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Charlotte SA White · Sun Dec 13 vs Charlotte SA Blue · Sat Jan 30 vs Wilmington Hammerheads See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Villarreal Force Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Charlotte SA Blue · Sun Dec 13 vs Charlotte SA White · Sat Feb 6 vs Jacksonville Hammerheads FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Catawba Valley YSA · Sun Jan 24 at Highland FC · Sat Jan 30 at NCFC Youth Premier See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.