NCFC Youth Premier

ECNL Regional League Boys · Carolinas BU13 · 10 teams · NCFC Youth (all teams)

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4th

4-1-2 record · 7 played

1.86 points per game

+12 goal diff · 19–7

WWWLDlast 5

99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.6

-0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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NCFC Youth Premier
4th · 1.86 PPG

Catawba Valley YSA
8th · 0.57 PPG

Buncombe County Sports Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

82% 12%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.1 for, 0.8 against · 2.56 expected points)

Season so far	NCFC Youth Premier	Catawba Valley YSA
Position	4th	8th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-2	1-1-5
Points per game	1.86	0.57
Goals for / game	2.7	0.9
Goals against / game	1.0	3.3
Clean sheets	4	1
Held scoreless	1	3
Form (recent first)	D L W W W	L D L W L
Biggest win	8–0 vs Villarreal Force Academy	3–1 vs NC Fusion
Worst loss	0–3 at NCFC Youth Elite	0–12 vs NCFC Youth Elite
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.16	-1.55
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.02	+0.38

Common opponents: NCFC Youth Elite — we 0–3; they 0–12. NC Fusion — we 3–0; they 3–1. Wilmington Hammerheads — we 3–0; they 0–0. Charlotte SA White — we 2–3; they 1–3. Charlotte SA Blue — we 1–1; they 1–3.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Catawba Valley YSA average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 2.2); blanked in 3 of 7.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Catawba Valley YSA concede 3.3/game; worst result 0–12 vs NCFC Youth Elite.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at NCFC Youth Elite.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Buncombe County Sports Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Catawba Valley YSA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NCFC Youth Premier – Catawba Valley YSA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.75 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 1.63 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

99% top 4

1% below the top 4

3.6 average finish

1st
2nd 6%
3rd 32%
4th 61%
5th 1%
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	NCFC Youth Elite	3.00 (+1.14)	1st (2.78)	59 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Charlotte SA White	2.71 (+0.85)	3rd (2.05)	53 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
3	Charlotte SA Blue	2.67 (+0.81)	2nd (2.32)	52 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection

How the results connect

33 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link NCFC Youth Premier to Catawba Valley YSA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

29 favour us

4 even

0 favour them

+4.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 8th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM	Catawba Valley YSA 8th · 1-1-5 · GD -17	Away far trip Buncombe County Sports Park	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	3–0	2.56	1.95	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	Highland FC 6th · 3-1-4 · GD -9	Away far trip Buncombe County Sports Park	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–1	2.24	1.98	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	NC Fusion 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -20	Away far trip Truist Soccer Complex at Bryan Park	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	3–0	2.66	2.05	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 TBD	Villarreal Force Academy 10th · 0-0-7 · GD -29	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	3–0	2.77	2.11	Bank it
Sat Dec 5 12:00 PM	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC 5th · 3-1-3 · GD -5	Away WRAL	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–1	2.27	2.13	Bank it
Sun Dec 6 09:00 AM	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC 5th · 3-1-3 · GD -5	Home WRAL	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	3–1	2.49	2.15	Bank it
Sat Dec 12 TBD	Charlotte SA White 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +12	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–1	1.65	2.12	Swing game
Sun Dec 13 TBD	Charlotte SA Blue 3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +18	Home	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.33	2.06	Upside
Sat Jan 30 TBD	Wilmington Hammerheads 7th · 2-2-4 · GD -2	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–0	2.30	2.08	Bank it
Sun Feb 7 TBD	NCFC Youth Elite 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +40	Away	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–3	0.44	1.98	Upside
Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM	NCFC Youth Elite 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +40	Home WRAL	●●●●● Very tough	16%	1–3	0.65	1.91	Upside
Sat Mar 13 12:00 PM	Catawba Valley YSA 8th · 1-1-5 · GD -17	Home WRAL	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	3–0	2.71	1.95	Bank it
Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM	Highland FC 6th · 3-1-4 · GD -9	Home WRAL	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.44	1.98	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 TBD	NC Fusion 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -20	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	3–0	2.66	2.01	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Charlotte SA White 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +12	Away	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.38	1.98	Upside
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Charlotte SA Blue 3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +18	Away	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–2	1.06	1.94	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC 5th · 3-1-3 · GD -5	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–1	2.27	1.95	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

NCFC Youth Elite

+40

3.00

WWWWW

-1.24

-0.26

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	7–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	12–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Highland FC (6th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	8–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA White · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs Jacksonville Hammerheads FC See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	6–1	98%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Highland FC (6th)	5–0	94%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	NC Fusion (9th)	7–0	99%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	3–1	74%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	3–1	63%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Highland FC (6th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	7–0	99%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	8–0	100%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	6–1	98%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	5–0	95%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	3–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA White

+12

2.71

WWWWW

-0.74

+0.14

100%

3.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Highland FC (6th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Highland FC (6th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sun Oct 25 at NC Fusion · Sat Oct 31 at Catawba Valley YSA See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NC Fusion (9th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	3–0	79%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Highland FC (6th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	3–0	79%
·	Sat May 1	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun May 2	at	NC Fusion (9th)	3–0	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Charlotte SA Blue

+18

2.67

WWWWD

-0.74

-0.20

100%

2.2

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Highland FC (6th)	7–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NC Fusion · Sun Oct 25 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Oct 31 at Highland FC See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NC Fusion (9th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Highland FC (6th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	4–1	86%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–3	21%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Highland FC (6th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat May 1	at	NC Fusion (9th)	4–0	91%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NCFC Youth Premier

+12

1.86

WWWLD

-0.02

+0.00

99%

3.6

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Catawba Valley YSA · Sun Oct 25 at Highland FC · Sat Nov 7 at NC Fusion See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Highland FC (6th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	NC Fusion (9th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Highland FC (6th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NC Fusion (9th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2	28%
·	Sat May 1	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	2–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Jacksonville Hammerheads FC

-5

1.43

DLLWW

-0.35

+0.18

6.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Highland FC (6th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	0–6
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–6
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at NC Fusion · Sun Nov 1 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Nov 21 at Charlotte SA Blue See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–6	1%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–4	6%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Highland FC (6th)	1–2	37%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Highland FC (6th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–6	1%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat May 1	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Highland FC

-9

1.25

LWLLW

+0.36

+0.04

6.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	2–7
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Villarreal Force Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs NCFC Youth Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs Charlotte SA Blue See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–5	2%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	2–1	42%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	1–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wilmington Hammerheads

-2

1.00

LLLDL

-0.27

+0.04

6.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Highland FC (6th)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	6–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at NC Fusion · Sun Nov 1 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Nov 21 at Charlotte SA White See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–5	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Highland FC (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Highland FC (6th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–5	2%
·	Sat May 1	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Catawba Valley YSA

-17

0.57

LWLDL

+0.38

+0.19

8.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–12
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Highland FC (6th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs Villarreal Force Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Charlotte SA White See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Highland FC (6th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	NC Fusion (9th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Highland FC (6th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NC Fusion

-20

0.00

LLLLL

+1.34

+0.03

8.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Highland FC (6th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Villarreal Force Academy · Sat Oct 24 vs Charlotte SA Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs Charlotte SA White See all 20 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Highland FC (6th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Highland FC (6th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Villarreal Force Academy (10th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Villarreal Force Academy

-29

0.00

LLLLL

+1.17

+0.12

9.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs NC Fusion · Sat Oct 24 at Highland FC · Sun Oct 25 at Catawba Valley YSA See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Highland FC (6th)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–7	0%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	NCFC Youth Premier (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	NC Fusion (9th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Highland FC (6th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Catawba Valley YSA (8th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Jacksonville Hammerheads FC (5th)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NCFC Youth Elite (1st)	0–8	0%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	NC Fusion (9th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Charlotte SA Blue (3rd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Charlotte SA White (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Wilmington Hammerheads (7th)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.