Ohio Elite SA
ECNL Girls · Ohio Valley GU17 · 6 teams · Ohio Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 21, 02:30 PM
Seven Hills School, Lower Field ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Ohio Elite SA | Racing Louisville Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Racing Louisville Academy average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
Indy Eleven sit 3rd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Indy Eleven on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Racing Louisville Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Elite SA – Racing Louisville Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
6th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 17%
- 2nd 18%
- 3rd 17%
- 4th 17%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 16%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Alliance TN | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.46) | Already ahead |
| 2 | FC Pride Elite | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.44) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Indy Eleven | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.44) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 4th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 21 02:30 PM |
Racing Louisville Academy 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM |
FC Alliance TN 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Hardin Valley Academy Stadium · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 13 11:00 AM |
Tennessee SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Bethesda Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 01:30 PM |
Indy Eleven 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 01:30 PM |
Tennessee SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 01:30 PM |
FC Alliance TN 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 12:30 PM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 12:30 PM |
WNY Flash |
Home Seven Hills School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
Racing Louisville Academy 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 01:30 PM |
FC Pride Elite 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Indy Eleven 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 10:45 AM |
FC Pride Elite 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
FC Pride Performance Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Alliance TN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sun Dec 13 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sat Jan 30 at Tennessee SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | FC Pride Elite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Indy Eleven · Sun Feb 21 at Tennessee SC · Sat Mar 6 vs Indy Eleven See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Indy Eleven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Feb 13 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Mar 6 at FC Pride Elite See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Ohio Elite SA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sat Dec 12 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Dec 13 at Tennessee SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Racing Louisville Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Dec 13 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Feb 13 at Tennessee SC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Tennessee SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 13 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sat Jan 30 vs FC Alliance TN · Sat Feb 13 vs Racing Louisville Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.