Washington Premier
ECNL Girls · Northwest GU17 · 10 teams · Washington Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 12, 11:00 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Washington Premier | Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Avalanche average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Seattle United sit 8th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Seattle United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Avalanche game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Washington Premier – Avalanche) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 7 | 10th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 8 | 1st▲ up 8 | 9th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 7 | 10th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 11%
- 2nd 11%
- 3rd 9%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 10%
- 6th 9%
- 7th 10%
- 8th 10%
- 9th 9%
- 10th 11%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avalanche | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.42) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Boise Thorns | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Eastside FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 4 | La Roca FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.42) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Oregon Surf | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 6 | PacNW SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 9th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 7 | Portland Thorns | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 8 | Seattle United | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 9th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 12 11:00 AM |
Avalanche 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 13 TBD |
La Roca FC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 17 TBD |
XF 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 11:00 AM |
Seattle United 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
Portland Thorns 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 31 11:00 AM |
Boise Thorns 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
PacNW SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 11:00 AM |
Eastside FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 11:00 AM |
Oregon Surf 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 11:00 AM |
XF 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Boise Thorns 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM |
PacNW SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Portland Thorns 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Oregon Surf 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 12:00 PM |
Eastside FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
La Roca FC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
La Roca Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 11:15 AM |
Avalanche 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
St. Joseph Catholic High School · grass |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 08:00 AM |
Seattle United 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Avalanche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Washington Premier · Sun Dec 13 at Seattle United · Sat Jan 30 at PacNW SC See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Boise Thorns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at XF · Sun Dec 13 at XF · Sat Jan 16 at Oregon Surf See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eastside FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at PacNW SC · Sat Jan 23 vs Portland Thorns · Sat Jan 30 vs La Roca FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | La Roca FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Seattle United · Sun Dec 13 at Washington Premier · Sat Jan 30 at Eastside FC See all 23 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Oregon Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Portland Thorns · Sat Jan 16 vs Boise Thorns · Sun Jan 17 at PacNW SC See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | PacNW SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Eastside FC · Sat Jan 16 vs Portland Thorns · Sun Jan 17 vs Oregon Surf See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Portland Thorns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Oregon Surf · Sat Jan 16 at PacNW SC · Sun Jan 17 vs Boise Thorns See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Seattle United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs La Roca FC · Sun Dec 13 vs Avalanche · Sat Jan 23 at Washington Premier See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Washington Premier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Avalanche · Sun Dec 13 vs La Roca FC · Sun Jan 17 at XF See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | XF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Boise Thorns · Sun Dec 13 vs Boise Thorns · Sun Jan 17 vs Washington Premier See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.