XF

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Venue TBD

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)

• They struggle to score
  Boise Thorns average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• What a win does
  Washington Premier sit 9th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

  A point moves us above Washington Premier on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Boise Thorns game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (XF – Boise Thorns) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

1. 1st 10%
2. 2nd 9%
3. 3rd 10%
4. 4th 9%
5. 5th 9%
6. 6th 9%
7. 7th 11%
8. 8th 9%
9. 9th 10%
10. 10th 14%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).