WNY Flash
ECNL Boys · Ohio Valley BU18/19 · 9 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 19, 10:00 AM
OP Training Facility, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | WNY Flash | Ohio Premier |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Ohio Premier average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at OP Training Facility.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
RNY FC Youth sit 8th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above RNY FC Youth on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Ohio Premier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash – Ohio Premier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Dec 14 – Sun Dec 20); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 7 | 8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 8 | 1st▲ up 8 | 7th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 7 | 8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 9th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 11%
- 2nd 11%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 12%
- 5th 11%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 11%
- 9th 11%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Force SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | FC Pride Elite | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Louisville City Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 8th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 4 | Nationals SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Ohio Elite SA | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 6 | Ohio Premier | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 8 | RNY FC Youth | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 19 10:00 AM |
Ohio Premier 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
OP Training Facility |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 20 02:30 PM |
Ohio Elite SA 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Seven Hills School |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 02:30 PM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 02:30 PM |
Louisville City Academy 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 02:30 PM |
FC Pride Elite 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 02:30 PM |
RNY FC Youth 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
Louisville City Academy 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM |
FC Pride Elite 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
FC Pride Performance Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 02:00 PM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 01:30 PM |
Ohio Premier 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 01:30 PM |
Ohio Elite SA 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 01:30 PM |
Nationals SC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 01:30 PM |
Cleveland Force SC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
RNY FC Youth 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Cleveland Force SC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Nationals SC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Force SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Nationals SC · Sat Jan 30 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 6 at Louisville City Academy See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Pride Elite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 vs Nationals SC · Sun Dec 20 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Feb 6 at Ohio Premier See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Louisville City Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Dec 20 vs Nationals SC · Sat Feb 13 vs Ohio Elite SA See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Nationals SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Dec 12 at Cleveland Force SC · Sat Dec 19 at FC Pride Elite See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Ohio Elite SA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Dec 19 vs RNY FC Youth · Sun Dec 20 vs WNY Flash See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Ohio Premier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Dec 19 vs WNY Flash · Sun Dec 20 vs RNY FC Youth See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Nationals SC · Sat Dec 19 at Louisville City Academy · Sun Dec 20 at FC Pride Elite See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | RNY FC Youth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Dec 20 at Ohio Premier · Sun Mar 7 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | WNY Flash | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 19 at Ohio Premier · Sun Dec 20 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Mar 6 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.