WNY Flash

ECNL Boys · Ohio Valley BU14 · 9 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)

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7th

1-1-5 record · 7 played

0.57 points per game

-15 goal diff · 5–20

LLDLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.3

+0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Mar 14, 09:00 AM

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WNY Flash
7th · 0.57 PPG

FC Pride Elite
8th · 0.50 PPG

Flash Fields, Field A ↗

28% 25% 47%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.1 for, 1.6 against · 1.08 expected points)

Season so far	WNY Flash	FC Pride Elite
Position	7th	8th
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-5	0-2-2
Points per game	0.57	0.50
Goals for / game	0.7	0.5
Goals against / game	2.9	1.8
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	3	2
Form (recent first)	L L D L L	L L D D
Biggest win	2–1 vs RNY FC Youth	—
Worst loss	1–6 at Ohio Premier	0–3 at Ohio Premier
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.40	-0.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.30	+0.60

Common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds — we 0–3; they 0–0. Ohio Premier — we 1–6; they 0–3. Ohio Elite SA — we 1–4; they 1–3. Nationals SC — we 1–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
FC Pride Elite average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 2 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds, 0–3 vs Cleveland Force SC, 0–2 vs Louisville City Academy.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 28%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Pride Elite game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash – FC Pride Elite) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Mar 8 – Sun Mar 14); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 0.63 PPG	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1	8th▼ down 1
Win 0.88 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Draw 0.63 PPG	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1	8th▼ down 1
Loss 0.50 PPG	8th▼ down 1	8th▼ down 1	9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

8.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th <1%
6th 1%
7th 12%
8th 45%
9th 42%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.94 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Ohio Premier	2.67 (+2.10)	1st (2.39)	39 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Louisville City Academy	2.40 (+1.83)	3rd (1.99)	35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Nationals SC	2.14 (+1.57)	2nd (2.11)	31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Cleveland Force SC	1.33 (+0.76)	4th (1.40)	18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1.33 (+0.76)	5th (1.35)	18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
6	Ohio Elite SA	1.29 (+0.72)	6th (1.28)	17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection

How the results connect

22 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link WNY Flash to FC Pride Elite through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us

2 even

13 favour them

-1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 2nd hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM	FC Pride Elite 8th · 0-2-2 · GD -5	Home Flash Fields	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–1	1.08	0.64	Upside
Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM	Louisville City Academy 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +8	Away far trip Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–3	0.20	0.59	Upside
Sun Apr 4 11:00 AM	FC Pride Elite 8th · 0-2-2 · GD -5	Away far trip FC Pride Performance Center	●●●●● Very tough	21%	0–1	0.87	0.62	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Cleveland Force SC 4th · 2-2-2 · GD +1	Away	●●●●● Very tough	10%	0–2	0.47	0.60	Upside
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Nationals SC 3rd · 4-3-0 · GD +11	Away	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–3	0.17	0.57	Upside
Sat Apr 24 05:00 PM	Ohio Premier 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +13	Home Flash Fields	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–3	0.18	0.54	Upside
Sun Apr 25 02:30 PM	Ohio Elite SA 6th · 3-0-4 · GD +1	Home Sahlen's Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	16%	1–2	0.64	0.54	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	RNY FC Youth 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -13	Away	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–2	1.08	0.58	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 5th · 2-2-2 · GD -1	Away	●●●●● Very tough	13%	0–1	0.60	0.58	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Ohio Premier

+13

2.67

WWWWD

-0.32

-0.05

100%

1.3

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	RNY FC Youth (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	WNY Flash (7th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–0	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–0	68%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	1–0	46%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	WNY Flash (7th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	RNY FC Youth (9th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	1–0	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Louisville City Academy

2.40

WWLWW

-0.40

-0.00

99%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	RNY FC Youth (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash (7th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Nov 7 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	WNY Flash (7th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	RNY FC Youth (9th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	1–1	25%
·	Sat May 1	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	1–0	50%
·	Sun May 2	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–1	18%
·	Sat May 15	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–0	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nationals SC

+11

2.14

WDWWD

-0.13

-0.12

100%

2.2

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	RNY FC Youth (9th)	5–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	WNY Flash (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Elite SA · Sun Mar 14 at Ohio Premier See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–1	24%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	RNY FC Youth (9th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	WNY Flash (7th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	1–0	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force SC

1.33

DDWLW

-0.06

+0.01

43%

4.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	WNY Flash (7th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	RNY FC Youth (9th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Louisville City Academy · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 13 at Ohio Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–0	48%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–1	11%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	1–0	42%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	WNY Flash (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	RNY FC Youth (9th)	2–0	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

-1

1.33

DWDWL

+0.06

-0.02

32%

5.1

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	WNY Flash (7th)	3–0
D	Sun Aug 30	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	0–0
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Nationals SC · Sat Nov 7 vs RNY FC Youth · Sat Mar 6 vs Ohio Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	RNY FC Youth (9th)	2–0	64%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	RNY FC Youth (9th)	1–0	55%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	0–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–0	49%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–1	14%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	0–1	24%
·	Sun May 2	vs	WNY Flash (7th)	1–0	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA

1.29

WLWLL

-0.17

+0.14

24%

5.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	WNY Flash (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	RNY FC Youth (9th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 6 vs Louisville City Academy · Sat Mar 13 vs Nationals SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	RNY FC Youth (9th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	WNY Flash (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat May 1	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–2	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash

-15

0.57

LLDLL

+0.30

+0.09

8.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–6
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	RNY FC Youth (9th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	0–3

Next: Sun Mar 14 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Apr 3 at Louisville City Academy · Sun Apr 4 at FC Pride Elite See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 1	at	RNY FC Youth (9th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun May 2	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	0–1	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite

-5

0.50

DDLL

+0.60

-0.10

6.9

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	1–1
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Louisville City Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	0–1	25%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	RNY FC Youth (9th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	WNY Flash (7th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	RNY FC Youth (9th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	WNY Flash (7th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	0–1	21%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	0–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RNY FC Youth

-13

0.17

LLDLL

+0.34

+0.07

8.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–5
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	WNY Flash (7th)	1–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Mar 7 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Pride Elite See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (5th)	0–1	21%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Louisville City Academy (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Nationals SC (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Cleveland Force SC (4th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA (6th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat May 1	vs	WNY Flash (7th)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.41 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.