XF

ECNL Boys · Northwest BU18/19 · 9 teams · Crossfire Premier (all teams)

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2nd

6-0-1 record · 7 played

2.57 points per game

+36 goal diff · 45–9

WLWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3

-0.76 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, TBD

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XF
2nd · 2.57 PPG

PacNW SC
5th · 1.60 PPG

Venue TBD

74% 12% 14%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.9 for, 1.8 against · 2.34 expected points)

Season so far	XF	PacNW SC
Position	2nd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-1	2-2-1
Points per game	2.57	1.60
Goals for / game	6.4	2.4
Goals against / game	1.3	1.8
Clean sheets	3	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W L W	D D W L W
Biggest win	13–0 at XF 2	4–1 vs Columbia Premier SC
Worst loss	1–3 at Washington Premier	4–5 at Washington Premier
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.22	+0.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.76	-0.04

Common opponents: Snohomish United — we 8–1; they 1–0. Columbia Premier SC — we 8–0; they 4–1. Washington Premier — we 1–3; they 4–5. Seattle United — we 3–0; they 1–1.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PacNW SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (XF – PacNW SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.63 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.63 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.38 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.25 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

71% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.3 average finish

1st 71%
2nd 28%
3rd 2%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Washington Premier	3.00 (+0.43)	2nd (2.39)	30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

23 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link XF to PacNW SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

19 favour us

4 favour them

+4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 8th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 TBD	PacNW SC 5th · 2-2-1 · GD +3	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	3–1	2.34	2.54	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 TBD	Eastside FC 4th · 2-2-1 · GD +8	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	4–1	2.48	2.54	Bank it
Sat Dec 12 TBD	Columbia Premier SC 8th · 0-2-4 · GD -18	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	7–1	2.95	2.58	Bank it
Sat Jan 9 01:00 PM	Eastside FC 4th · 2-2-1 · GD +8	Away PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	3–2	2.22	2.55	Swing game
Sat Jan 16 TBD	Washington Premier 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +14	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	3–2	2.04	2.50	Swing game
Sat Jan 30 01:00 PM	Snohomish United 7th · 1-0-5 · GD -20	Away far trip Snohomish High School · turf?	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	6–1	2.92	2.54	Bank it
Sat Feb 6 TBD	3RSC 9th · 0-1-5 · GD -21	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	7–1	2.92	2.56	Bank it
Sat Feb 13 06:00 AM	Seattle United 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +9	Away far trip TBD	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	3–2	2.00	2.53	Swing game
Sat Feb 20 TBD	PacNW SC 5th · 2-2-1 · GD +3	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	4–1	2.57	2.53	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Washington Premier

+14

3.00

WWWWW

-0.48

-0.08

100%

1.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Snohomish United (7th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	XF (2nd)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	PacNW SC (5th)	5–4
W	Sun Aug 30	at	3RSC (9th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC · Sun Nov 1 at Seattle United · Sat Nov 14 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Eastside FC (4th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Seattle United (3rd)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Eastside FC (4th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	XF 2 (6th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	XF 2 (6th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	PacNW SC (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	XF (2nd)	2–3	22%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Seattle United (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Snohomish United (7th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	3RSC (9th)	5–1	93%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

+36

2.57

WLWWW

-0.76

-0.13

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	3RSC (9th)	8–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	XF 2 (6th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Seattle United (3rd)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Washington Premier (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	XF 2 (6th)	13–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Snohomish United (7th)	8–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at PacNW SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Eastside FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	PacNW SC (5th)	3–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Eastside FC (4th)	4–1	79%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	7–1	98%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Eastside FC (4th)	3–2	70%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Washington Premier (1st)	3–2	63%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Snohomish United (7th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	3RSC (9th)	7–1	97%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Seattle United (3rd)	3–2	61%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	PacNW SC (5th)	4–1	83%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Seattle United

2.00

WWLDW

-0.28

-0.06

94%

3.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Snohomish United (7th)	5–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	PacNW SC (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	XF (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	XF 2 (6th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	3RSC (9th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Snohomish United · Sat Oct 24 vs Columbia Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Washington Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Snohomish United (7th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Washington Premier (1st)	1–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Eastside FC (4th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	XF 2 (6th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	3RSC (9th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	PacNW SC (5th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Washington Premier (1st)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	XF (2nd)	2–3	23%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Eastside FC (4th)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eastside FC

1.60

DLWWD

-1.28

+0.47

43%

4.5

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	PacNW SC (5th)	2–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	3RSC (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Snohomish United (7th)	6–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	XF 2 (6th)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Washington Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Seattle United · Sat Nov 14 at XF See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Washington Premier (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Seattle United (3rd)	2–2	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	XF (2nd)	1–4	10%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Washington Premier (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	3RSC (9th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Dec 19	at	PacNW SC (5th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	XF (2nd)	2–3	17%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	XF 2 (6th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Snohomish United (7th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Seattle United (3rd)	1–2	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PacNW SC

1.60

WLWDD

-0.04

-0.03

59%

4.3

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Eastside FC (4th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Seattle United (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Washington Premier (1st)	4–5
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Snohomish United (7th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at 3RSC · Sun Nov 1 vs XF · Sun Nov 8 at XF 2 See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	3RSC (9th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	XF (2nd)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	XF 2 (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Snohomish United (7th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Dec 19	vs	Eastside FC (4th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Washington Premier (1st)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	3RSC (9th)	4–1	82%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Seattle United (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	XF 2 (6th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	XF (2nd)	1–4	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

XF 2

-11

1.20

WLLWL

+1.28

-0.40

5.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	XF (2nd)	1–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Seattle United (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	XF (2nd)	0–13
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Eastside FC (4th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Snohomish United · Sun Nov 1 at 3RSC · Sun Nov 8 vs PacNW SC See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Snohomish United (7th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	3RSC (9th)	3–2	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	PacNW SC (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Seattle United (3rd)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Washington Premier (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Washington Premier (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	3–1	62%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Snohomish United (7th)	2–2	53%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	PacNW SC (5th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Eastside FC (4th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	3RSC (9th)	3–2	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Snohomish United

-20

0.50

LLWLL

+0.79

-0.10

7.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Seattle United (3rd)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Washington Premier (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	3RSC (9th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Eastside FC (4th)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 13	at	PacNW SC (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	XF (2nd)	1–8

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seattle United · Sat Oct 24 at XF 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Seattle United (3rd)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	XF 2 (6th)	1–3	20%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	PacNW SC (5th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	3RSC (9th)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	XF 2 (6th)	2–2	29%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	XF (2nd)	1–6	1%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Washington Premier (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Eastside FC (4th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	2–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbia Premier SC

-18

0.33

LDLLL

+0.45

+0.09

8.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Washington Premier (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	XF 2 (6th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	PacNW SC (5th)	1–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	3RSC (9th)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	XF (2nd)	0–8
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Eastside FC (4th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United · Sun Nov 8 at Snohomish United · Sat Nov 14 at Washington Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Seattle United (3rd)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Snohomish United (7th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Washington Premier (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	XF (2nd)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	XF 2 (6th)	1–3	22%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Eastside FC (4th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	3RSC (9th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Seattle United (3rd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	PacNW SC (5th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Snohomish United (7th)	2–2	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

3RSC

-21

0.17

LDLLL

+0.50

+0.14

8.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	XF (2nd)	4–8
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Eastside FC (4th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Snohomish United (7th)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Seattle United (3rd)	0–7
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Washington Premier (1st)	0–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PacNW SC · Sun Nov 1 vs XF 2 · Sat Dec 5 vs Snohomish United See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	PacNW SC (5th)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	XF 2 (6th)	2–3	32%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Snohomish United (7th)	2–2	50%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Eastside FC (4th)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Seattle United (3rd)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	PacNW SC (5th)	1–4	8%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Columbia Premier SC (8th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	XF (2nd)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Washington Premier (1st)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	XF 2 (6th)	2–3	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.