Seattle United
ECNL Boys · Northwest BU16 · 9 teams · Seattle United (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Shoreline A/B fields, Field B ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.3 for, 0.8 against · 2.31 expected points)
| Season so far | Seattle United | Columbia Premier SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-0 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per game | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D W D | L W W L L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at Snohomish United | 3–1 vs XF 2 |
| Worst loss | — | 0–3 vs XF 1 |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.97 | -0.51 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.34 | +0.14 |
Common opponents: 3RSC — we 2–2; they 1–2. XF 2 — we 3–1; they 3–1. XF 1 — we 1–1; they 0–3. PacNW SC — we 1–0; they 2–1.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Columbia Premier SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Seattle United – Columbia Premier SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.33 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.83 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 11%
- 2nd 42%
- 3rd 38%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 2%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XF 1 | 2.71 (+0.51) | 1st (2.43) | 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
How the results connect
21 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Seattle United to Columbia Premier SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.04 · 6th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 17 01:00 PM no score posted |
Snohomish United 8th · 0-1-5 · GD -17 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.74 | 2.29 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Columbia Premier SC 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -5 |
Home Shoreline A/B fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–0 | 2.31 | 2.29 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
Washington Premier 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -3 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.29 | 2.29 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Eastside FC 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.13 | 2.16 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
XF 2 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -16 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.74 | 2.22 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 9 08:00 AM |
3RSC 4th · 3-2-1 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.15 | 2.21 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 17 06:01 AM |
PacNW SC 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +1 |
Away TBD PacNW Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.77 | 2.18 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 11:00 AM |
Washington Premier 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.06 | 2.17 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 11:00 AM |
Columbia Premier SC 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Harmony Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–0 | 2.10 | 2.16 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 13 08:00 AM |
XF 1 1st · 6-1-0 · GD +19 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.13 | 2.09 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 10:00 AM |
Eastside FC 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +14 |
Home TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 2.05 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | XF 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 19 | 2.71 | WWDWW | -0.71 | +0.17 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at PacNW SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Eastside FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Seattle United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 11 | 2.20 | DWDWW | -0.34 | -0.04 | 98% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Snohomish United · Sat Oct 24 vs Columbia Premier SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Washington Premier See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eastside FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 5 | +14 | 10 | 2.00 | WWWDL | -0.72 | +0.07 | 98% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Washington Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs Seattle United · Sat Nov 14 at XF 1 See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | 3RSC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 | 1.83 | DWWDL | +0.31 | -0.15 | 56% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PacNW SC · Sun Nov 1 vs XF 2 · Sat Dec 5 vs Snohomish United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PacNW SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | DWLLW | +0.05 | -0.03 | 39% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at 3RSC · Sun Nov 1 vs XF 1 · Sun Nov 8 at XF 2 See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Washington Premier | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | LLLWW | -0.12 | +0.09 | 7% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC · Sun Nov 1 at Seattle United · Sat Nov 14 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Columbia Premier SC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 | 1.00 | LLWWL | +0.14 | -0.03 | 2% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Seattle United · Sun Nov 8 at Snohomish United · Sat Nov 14 at Washington Premier See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Snohomish United | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.63 | -0.06 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Seattle United · Sat Oct 24 at XF 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs Columbia Premier SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | XF 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 19 | -16 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.05 | -0.19 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Snohomish United · Sun Nov 1 at 3RSC · Sun Nov 8 vs PacNW SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.