Match Fit Surf
ECNL Boys · North Atlantic BU16 · 12 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Feb 20, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Match Fit Surf | World Class FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
World Class FC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Maryland United FC sit 3rd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Maryland United FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the World Class FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf – World Class FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Feb 15 – Sun Feb 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
12th▼ down 8 | 12th▼ down 8 | 12th▼ down 8 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 8%
- 2nd 8%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 9%
- 6th 7%
- 7th 8%
- 8th 8%
- 9th 7%
- 10th 10%
- 11th 8%
- 12th 8%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Celtic | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.42) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Delaware FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 10th (1.39) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Maryland United FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.42) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 4th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
World Class FC 12th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Baltimore Celtic 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
STA 11th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Delaware FC 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Maryland United FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Potomac Soccer Association 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Pipeline SC 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.45 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 02:00 PM |
SJEBFC 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Tuckahoe Farm |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Penn Fusion Soccer Academy 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.42 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Baltimore Celtic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sat Feb 13 vs Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sat Feb 27 at Match Fit Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Delaware FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs STA · Sat Mar 6 at Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 13 at Match Fit Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Maryland United FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 20 vs PSA Monmouth · Sat Mar 6 at Baltimore Celtic · Sat Mar 13 at STA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Match Fit Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 20 vs World Class FC · Sat Feb 27 vs Baltimore Celtic · Sat Mar 6 at STA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Penn Fusion Soccer Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Baltimore Celtic · Sat Feb 27 at STA · Sat Mar 6 vs Delaware FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at World Class FC · Sat Feb 13 at Baltimore Celtic · Sat Mar 6 at PSA Monmouth See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Pipeline SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs SJEBFC · Sat Feb 27 vs PSA Monmouth · Sat Mar 6 vs Potomac Soccer Association See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Potomac Soccer Association | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 6 at Pipeline SC · Sat Mar 13 at Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sat Apr 10 vs Match Fit Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | PSA Monmouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 20 at Maryland United FC · Sat Feb 27 at Pipeline SC · Sat Mar 6 vs Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | SJEBFC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Pipeline SC · Sat Mar 6 at World Class FC · Sun Mar 7 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | STA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Delaware FC · Sat Feb 27 vs Penn Fusion Soccer Academy · Sat Mar 6 vs Match Fit Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | World Class FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Philadelphia Ukrainian Nationals · Sat Feb 20 at Match Fit Surf · Sat Mar 6 vs SJEBFC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.