Real Colorado National
ECNL Boys · Mountain BU14 · 5 teams · Real Colorado (all teams)
Next game — Sat Feb 6, 11:15 AM
Highland Heritage Regional Park, HHRP West ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.6 for, 3.0 against · 0.73 expected points)
| Season so far | Real Colorado National | Pride SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-2 | 2-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| Goals against / game | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L | W W |
| Biggest win | — | 6–3 vs La Roca FC |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs Avalanche | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.80 | +0.80 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Common opponents: Avalanche — we 1–3; they 1–0. La Roca FC — we 1–3; they 6–3.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Pride SC score 3.5/game — well above the league's 2.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 19%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Colorado EDGE sit 4th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Colorado EDGE on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Pride SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Real Colorado National – Pride SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Feb 1 – Sun Feb 7); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 3 | 2nd▲ up 3 | 2nd▲ up 3 |
| Draw 0.33 PPG |
2nd▲ up 3 | 2nd▲ up 3 | 2nd▲ up 3 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 3%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 33%
- 5th 53%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pride SC | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.19) | 30 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 2 | El Paso Locomotive B12/13 | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.52) | Already ahead |
| 3 | NM Rapids SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.52) | Already ahead |
| 4 | Colorado EDGE | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.01) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.11 · 1st hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Feb 6 11:15 AM |
Pride SC 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +4 |
Home Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.73 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 11:00 AM |
El Paso Locomotive B12/13 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Socorro Athletic Complex (SAC) |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.83 | 0.39 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 09:00 AM |
NM Rapids SC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.83 | 0.48 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 10:00 AM |
Colorado EDGE 4th · 0-0-1 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Long Lake Regional Park · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–2 | 1.14 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 11:15 AM |
El Paso Locomotive B12/13 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Real Colorado Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 0.66 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
NM Rapids SC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 0.72 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Colorado Rush |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 0.76 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
Pride SC 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Pride Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–3 | 0.51 | 0.73 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Pride SC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | +0.00 | -0.29 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 6 at Real Colorado National · Sat Feb 20 at NM Rapids SC · Sun Feb 21 at El Paso Locomotive B12/13 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | El Paso Locomotive B12/13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.07 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 13 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 vs Real Colorado National · Sun Feb 21 vs Pride SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NM Rapids SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.07 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Feb 14 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 vs Pride SC · Sun Feb 21 vs Real Colorado National See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Colorado EDGE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | -0.00 | 65% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 20 vs La Roca FC · Sun Feb 21 vs Avalanche · Sat Feb 27 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Real Colorado National | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.00 | +0.11 | 47% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 6 vs Pride SC · Sat Feb 20 at El Paso Locomotive B12/13 · Sun Feb 21 at NM Rapids SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.