Real Colorado National
ECNL Boys · Mountain BU13 · 5 teams · Real Colorado (all teams)
Next game — Sat Feb 6, 01:30 PM
Highland Heritage Regional Park, HHRP West ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.7 for, 0.6 against · 2.54 expected points)
| Season so far | Real Colorado National | Pride SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-0 | 0-0-2 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W | L L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs La Roca FC | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–3 vs La Roca FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.60 | -1.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Common opponents: Avalanche — we 3–2; they 0–2. La Roca FC — we 2–0; they 0–3.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Pride SC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.2); blanked in 2 of 2.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Pride SC concede 2.5/game; worst result 0–3 vs La Roca FC.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Pride SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Real Colorado National – Pride SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Feb 1 – Sun Feb 7); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 69%
- 2nd 22%
- 3rd 7%
- 4th 2%
- 5th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.25 · 5th hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Feb 6 01:30 PM |
Pride SC 5th · 0-0-2 · GD -5 |
Home Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.54 | 2.85 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 20 09:00 AM |
El Paso Locomotive B13/14 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Socorro Athletic Complex (SAC) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 2.55 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 21 11:00 AM |
NM Rapids SC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 2.37 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 10:00 AM |
Colorado EDGE 2nd · 0-1-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Long Lake Regional Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.65 | 2.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 01:30 PM |
El Paso Locomotive B13/14 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Real Colorado Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–1 | 1.90 | 2.20 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
NM Rapids SC 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–1 | 1.90 | 2.17 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Colorado Rush |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–1 | 1.90 | 2.14 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 09:00 AM |
Pride SC 5th · 0-0-2 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Pride Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.37 | 2.16 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Colorado National | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | +0.00 | -0.25 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 6 vs Pride SC · Sat Feb 20 at El Paso Locomotive B13/14 · Sun Feb 21 at NM Rapids SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Colorado EDGE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 1 | 1.00 | +0.00 | -0.04 | 93% | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 20 vs La Roca FC · Sun Feb 21 vs Avalanche · Sat Feb 27 vs Colorado Storm Central See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | El Paso Locomotive B13/14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.07 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Feb 13 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 vs Real Colorado National · Sun Feb 21 vs Pride SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | NM Rapids SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | -0.07 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Feb 14 vs Colorado Rush · Sat Feb 20 vs Pride SC · Sun Feb 21 vs Real Colorado National See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Pride SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.00 | +0.15 | 16% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 6 at Real Colorado National · Sat Feb 20 at NM Rapids SC · Sun Feb 21 at El Paso Locomotive B13/14 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.