St Croix

Open the match preview →

St. Croix Valley Recreation Center, Field 1 ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)

• They struggle to score
  MN Thunder Academy average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• What a win does
  Rockford Raptors FC sit 7th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

  A point moves us above Rockford Raptors FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the MN Thunder Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (St Croix – MN Thunder Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Jan 25 – Sun Jan 31); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st 12%
2. 2nd 11%
3. 3rd 13%
4. 4th 13%
5. 5th 13%
6. 6th 13%
7. 7th 12%
8. 8th 12%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).